NHL · resolved market
Kraken vs. Utah: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8761b2335a8208ab72d462212aaf4a389380f536d91df953c2374c35c2ef8007
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,616
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,689
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,616 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 47c | 7,693$3,616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,615.6 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 53c | 5,000$2,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,350 | 210 | 36.2%76 W · 134 L | -14.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Over | 53c | 3,000$1,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,410 | 185 | 47%87 W · 98 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Over | 54c | 1,100$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.94 | 384 | 45.8%176 W · 208 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 46c | 1,068$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.58 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 47c | 856$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.32 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 47c | 814.82$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.92 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Over | 55c | 600$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 318 | 48.1%153 W · 165 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 47c | 500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf3…f535backed Over | 53c | 450$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.5 | 115 | 57.4%66 W · 49 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 46c | 444$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.24 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e69…200ebacked Over | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.36 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x064e…4347backed Over | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.36 | 93 | 46.2%43 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Over | 53c | 300$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 48c | 210$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 624 | 47.3%295 W · 329 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf836…e7b5backed Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce70…0be2backed Over | 53c | 141.51$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.51 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Under | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 599 | 50.4%302 W · 297 L | +20.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba68…39d7backed Over | 53c | 90$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.3 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Under | 45c | 74.56$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.55 | 88 | 37.5%33 W · 55 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 47c | 68.44$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.13 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc1…8b83backed Over | 53c | 66.04$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x412f…019dbacked Over | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Over | 54c | 57.41$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.41 | 696 | 53.4%372 W · 324 L | -16.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2c…787cbacked Under | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 124 | 45.2%56 W · 68 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Under | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 305 | 49.2%150 W · 155 L | -14.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1aa…071abacked Over | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7c…ca88backed Over | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3945…7077backed Over | 54c | 22.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kraken vs. Utah: O/U 5.5this page
- Kraken vs. UtahUtah won
- Kraken vs. Utah: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Utah (-1.5)Utah won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.