College Football · resolved market
Spread: USC (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x876b0d4846209d14defed839f98b612a626ff431f2a68ddb438c1a75bb97676a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Iowaof USC, Iowa
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,028
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,047
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,028 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Iowa | 56c | 1,850$1,036 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$814 | 243 | 48.1%117 W · 126 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed USC | 44c | 1,650$726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725.91 | 213 | 48.8%104 W · 109 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked USC | 44c | 1,226$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.05 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Iowa | 56c | 659$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.96 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Iowa | 56c | 367.8$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.83 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Iowa | 55c | 243.11$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.73 | 659 | 45.2%298 W · 361 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Iowa | 55c | 196.81$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.57 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +21.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked USC | 43c | 158$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.94 | 526 | 41.8%220 W · 306 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed USC | 46c | 149.64$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.09 | 542 | 43.2%234 W · 308 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed USC | 43c | 110.53$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.53 | 227 | 50.7%115 W · 112 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4e…18debacked Iowa | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4de…cb5cbacked Iowa | 59c | 43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Iowa | 57c | 42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.06 | 524 | 49.4%259 W · 265 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a3…0c69backed Iowa | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -5.3wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc54d…cce3backed USC | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0448…5a75backed Iowa | 58c | 32.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked USC | 42c | 32.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: USC (-7.5)this page
- Iowa vs. USCUSC won
- Iowa vs. USC: 1H MoneylineIowa won
- Iowa vs. USC: O/U 48.5Under won
- O/U 49.5Under won
- Spread: USC (-6.5)Iowa won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.