College Football · resolved market
Spread: USC (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8226c93c8ec3de104a912daa6af3c6f40d96f440c42f31a78850462ee432f662
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Iowaof USC, Iowa
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $85,233
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $85,663
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $85,233 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4335…fc2fbacked Iowa | 49c | 50,000$24,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,500 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Iowa | 48c | 24,756$11,885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,871.13 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7189…b454backed USC | 51c | 21,188$10,830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,829.84 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c6f…89b9backed USC | 51c | 15,731$8,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,022.67 | 98 | 44.9%44 W · 54 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed USC | 52c | 10,000$5,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,200 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed USC | 51c | 9,233$4,722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,722.27 | 524 | 49.4%259 W · 265 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe509…895cbacked USC | 52c | 5,550$2,886 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,886 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed USC | 51c | 4,500$2,295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,294.99 | 385 | 46%177 W · 208 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked USC | 52c | 4,000$2,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,080 | 157 | 51%80 W · 77 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed USC | 51c | 2,075$1,059 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,059.24 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed USC | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 178 | 37.6%67 W · 111 L | -12.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Iowa | 49c | 1,500$735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$765 | 243 | 48.1%117 W · 126 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Iowa | 50c | 1,300$644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$655.87 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked USC | 52c | 961.54$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 71 | 36.6%26 W · 45 L | -7.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked USC | 51c | 787.96$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.86 | 224 | 37.5%84 W · 140 L | -17.3wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7140…47e3backed Iowa | 47c | 636.17$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.17 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed USC | 51c | 564.15$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.81 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked USC | 51c | 555$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.05 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…d00fbacked USC | 53c | 518.87$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked USC | 52c | 415.19$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.9 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked USC | 51c | 409.45$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.82 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked USC | 52c | 400$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…8a6ebacked Iowa | 46c | 216.4$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.4 | 179 | 46.9%84 W · 95 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa61d…df1abacked Iowa | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4451…c6afbacked Iowa | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed USC | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 135 | 48.9%66 W · 69 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…2312backed Iowa | 49c | 181.84$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.84 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f6…5ac8backed Iowa | 52c | 180.98$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.87 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Iowa | 47c | 154.62$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.95 | 213 | 48.8%104 W · 109 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Iowa | 48c | 145.83$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.83 | 302 | 53%160 W · 142 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked USC | 48c | 129.98$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.39 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Iowa | 47c | 128$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.84 | 342 | 50.3%172 W · 170 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed USC | 54c | 122$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.88 | 216 | 44.9%97 W · 119 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed USC | 52c | 120$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.8 | 97 | 54.6%53 W · 44 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1f…4eebbacked USC | 9c | 120$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50bb…9aa6backed USC | 51c | 110$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.1 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49d1…7b96backed USC | 51c | 107.5$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.83 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf35…b327backed Iowa | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed USC | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed USC | 52c | 67.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 167 | 50.3%84 W · 83 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked USC | 51c | 55.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.31 | 268 | 46.3%124 W · 144 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…9f3fbacked Iowa | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked Iowa | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 160 | 50%80 W · 80 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8a…b155backed Iowa | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed USC | 54c | 51$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 632 | 43.7%276 W · 356 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe175…39edbacked Iowa | 49c | 48.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Iowa | 48c | 44.23$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 134 | 53%71 W · 63 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6079…81c6backed Iowa | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9efd…30babacked Iowa | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf1…c04bbacked Iowa | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f98…1fe3backed USC | 52c | 40.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d23…b55bbacked USC | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9d…3ea9backed USC | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…5a82backed USC | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7429…451ebacked Iowa | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Iowa | 48c | 27.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 542 | 43.2%234 W · 308 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bff…e03abacked Iowa | 47c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 44cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: USC (-6.5)this page
- Iowa vs. USCUSC won
- Iowa vs. USC: 1H MoneylineIowa won
- Iowa vs. USC: O/U 48.5Under won
- O/U 49.5Under won
- Spread: USC (-7.5)Iowa won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.