College Football · resolved market
Iowa vs. USC: O/U 48.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd390eb0c5b9d6adf1b9ff71c2ed900a506886c59ec897c31beaca814336612b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,129
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,165
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,129 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7189…b454backed Over | 52c | 40,454$20,906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,906.42 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 19,610$9,455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,155.2 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Over | 51c | 6,065$3,067 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,066.78 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 48c | 5,261$2,523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,738 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 49c | 3,500$1,715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,785 | 526 | 41.8%220 W · 306 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Under | 50c | 3,395$1,690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,705.07 | 213 | 48.8%104 W · 109 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 48c | 3,321$1,610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,711.25 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Under | 49c | 3,150$1,544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,606.54 | 118 | 51.7%61 W · 57 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Under | 48c | 3,120$1,498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,622.4 | 147 | 43.5%64 W · 83 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 49c | 2,936$1,425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,511.42 | 492 | 53.5%263 W · 229 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Under | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…1ed3backed Under | 49c | 400$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +4.7wins | +0.27per pick | 49cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 48c | 300$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 659 | 45.2%298 W · 361 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…e9b4backed Over | 53c | 235.85$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 49c | 163.27$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.27 | 302 | 53%160 W · 142 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Under | 48c | 160.5$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.46 | 422 | 44.5%188 W · 234 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 49c | 105$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.6 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +21.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44ac…a025backed Under | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd33…81d1backed Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7d…c01abacked Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Over | 49c | 39.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 134 | 53%71 W · 63 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d3…ada0backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 49c | 23.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Iowa vs. USC: O/U 48.5this page
- Iowa vs. USCUSC won
- Iowa vs. USC: 1H MoneylineIowa won
- O/U 49.5Under won
- Spread: USC (-6.5)Iowa won
- Spread: USC (-7.5)Iowa won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.