Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on April 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x876edb0e497fe033af5ebe2d9d06e0255c478a5d0c324fc8f5be5334c33a46ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,200
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,821
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,200 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee5d…4143backed Yes | 12c | 1,101$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.01 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -3.3wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa128…541ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,059$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.55 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb7…2838backed Yes | 10c | 981.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.91 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 14c | 858.49$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.34 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 3c | 661.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 8c | 532.43$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.51 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4143…7104backed Yes | 4c | 516.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc95…0b9cbacked Yes | 8c | 487.7$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x755d…fb59backed Yes | 3c | 461.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd843…29a5backed Yes | 7c | 435.02$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2822…b098backed Yes | 11c | 338.25$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.35 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 6c | 325.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe73c…dd15backed Yes | 5c | 309.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 37 | 8.1%3 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…22cfbacked Yes | 6c | 302.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 7c | 283.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 5c | 276.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdea3…1b1abacked Yes | 4c | 259.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +6.4wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb06…adccbacked Yes | 7c | 253.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…b3e4backed Yes | 7c | 250.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 165 | 50.3%83 W · 82 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea08…6191backed Yes | 4c | 249.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07ac…ab30backed Yes | 10c | 247.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 8c | 242.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 16c | 231.46$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.24 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 7c | 226.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 25c | 203.58$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.61 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 13c | 200$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0be4…2ed6backed Yes | 15c | 195.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb12a…cb82backed Yes | 7c | 181.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 68 | 23.5%16 W · 52 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0754…a576backed Yes | 13c | 181.11$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf4d…33edbacked Yes | 11c | 170.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x848c…5a45backed Yes | 12c | 157.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe581…276fbacked Yes | 9c | 153.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +98.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 14c | 150$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 14c | 145.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f8b…a682backed Yes | 8c | 141.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce0…5a0abacked Yes | 14c | 133.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x652f…bc41backed Yes | 18c | 121.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44ea…6b1abacked Yes | 12c | 120.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa9…ba48backed Yes | 16c | 116.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e5…b209backed Yes | 11c | 111.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | -12.8wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x64c0…b4b9backed Yes | 11c | 107.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 241 | 9.5%23 W · 218 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed Yes | 13c | 96.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 16c | 74.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 75c | 58.78$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.61 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 78c | 22.07$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 79c | 20.42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on April 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on April 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C or higher on April 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.