TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on April 25?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$48,902
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$53,168

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,902 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 192 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x28f7…9a6abacked Yes48c1,075$518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$556.5810843.5%47 W · 61 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a19…3c95backed Yes29c725.21$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$518.2342857%244 W · 184 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0754…a576backed Yes57c618.78$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.2716437.2%61 W · 103 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed No29c579.62$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.2146824.4%114 W · 354 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1eea…00c5backed Yes73c515.52$374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.0222450.4%113 W · 111 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed No72c500$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3602,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x167e…0f16backed No44c441.77$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.818361.4%51 W · 32 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick61cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes39c427.71$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.091,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes53c403.57$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.4142130.4%128 W · 293 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No57c393.16$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.6512,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No52c371.74$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.298,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x52ef…1310backed Yes34c370.98$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.15427.8%15 W · 39 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b20…bc23backed No67c297.98$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.6581165.8%534 W · 277 L-37.1wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-6.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes64c294.5$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.745,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3bb7…2838backed Yes30c280.27$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.242913.8%4 W · 25 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-71.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked Yes59c264.12$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.831649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf2ef…caabbacked Yes41c263.6$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.722544%11 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked No4c261.3$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.452,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No56c246.55$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.243,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe4d0…b168backed Yes50c237.14$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.4811249.1%55 W · 57 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8796…e255backed No48c229.02$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.9811925.2%30 W · 89 L-14.1wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-37.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x7ce3…1689backed Yes48c228.63$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.447432.5%154 W · 320 L+20.2wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+12.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa2b0…bae1backed No6c225.63$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.043625%9 W · 27 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-44.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfc95…0b9cbacked Yes42c223.99$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.781637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee5d…4143backed No16c216.93$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.7980%0 W · 8 L-3.3wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed No52c210.21$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.8428737.6%108 W · 179 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0be4…2ed6backed Yes42c199.98$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.995846.6%27 W · 31 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8887…681bbacked Yes47c196.09$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.2113424.6%33 W · 101 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes55c195.79$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.0670133.5%235 W · 466 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes30c172.92$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.23,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0996…598dbacked No37c168.66$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.2548743.7%213 W · 274 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x747c…443bbacked Yes50c167.68$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.098643%37 W · 49 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes26c162.64$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.929,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No31c161.28$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No64c160.03$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.611,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f3b…b13bbacked Yes49c159.94$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.153246.9%15 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-15.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No45c158.37$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.324,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d02…704cbacked Yes52c150$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7232132.7%105 W · 216 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde9c…e014backed Yes67c146.91$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.9725839.9%103 W · 155 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x91b0…5676backed No66c146.19$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.6150%0 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No66c140.61$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.632,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bb8…cc5bbacked Yes70c139.04$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.06540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-40%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes32c137.89$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.727,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86bd…2c98backed Yes47c129.55$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.8915131.1%47 W · 104 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x652f…bc41backed Yes56c127.15$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.955349.1%26 W · 27 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-14%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0370…48d3backed No60c121.56$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.727552%39 W · 36 L+8.3wins+0.11per pick41cpaid+14.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x59d4…b745backed Yes72c120.43$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.2227540%110 W · 165 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe188…197bbacked Yes34c119.37$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.798536.5%31 W · 54 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes36c119.33$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.831,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8103…23a1backed No66c116.67$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.357614.9%86 W · 490 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf79…7376backed Yes34c108.03$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.884738.3%18 W · 29 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-7.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b11…2976backed Yes53c107.78$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.649941.7%208 W · 291 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8aa9…ba48backed Yes35c106.71$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.36633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-30.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f1c…dc61backed Yes60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.15per pick30cpaid-76.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes68c99.98$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.991,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcaaa…da37backed No29c98.38$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.1344659%263 W · 183 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed Yes21c96.95$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.256434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed Yes58c96.05$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.121,01161.2%619 W · 392 L+14.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc97…da82backed Yes29c94.62$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.8811646.6%54 W · 62 L-0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd36…a832backed Yes33c93.49$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.865043.4%282 W · 368 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe272…ac63backed Yes29c90.09$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.5220534.1%70 W · 135 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+31.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes45c88.93$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.561,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82f7…4bf0backed Yes39c88.68$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.931145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ba3…57bcbacked No25c88.48$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0739159.8%234 W · 157 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes44c85.12$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.3517135.1%60 W · 111 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x755d…fb59backed Yes35c84.16$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.5757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5278…5306backed Yes46c83.04$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.2214941.6%62 W · 87 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2936…6c5fbacked No69c81.27$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.4434250.6%173 W · 169 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes47c81$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.1352444.1%231 W · 293 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4087…9678backed No64c77.52$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.619553.7%51 W · 44 L-12.1wins-0.13per pick66cpaid-20.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x0175…4264backed No64c77.51$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.69753.6%52 W · 45 L-12.2wins-0.13per pick66cpaid-19.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes35c76.19$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.621,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes69c74.48$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.132,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb201…2766backed Yes40c74.07$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.483946.2%18 W · 21 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe75f…17c0backed Yes43c72$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.049443.6%41 W · 53 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+11.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xed54…4967backed Yes56c71.47$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.4549854.6%272 W · 226 L+46.4wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+20.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x592e…2030backed Yes36c69.79$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.665560%33 W · 22 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd0e1…7e35backed Yes63c67.77$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.395628.6%16 W · 40 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick30cpaid+7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x911a…6fcfbacked Yes42c67.29$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.03366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+48.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd31…0a42backed Yes47c66.68$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.1612638.1%48 W · 78 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x09c2…8210backed Yes53c65$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.5554154%292 W · 249 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No34c64$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.052,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6240…c294backed No60c63.38$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.969462.8%59 W · 35 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1db5…ff84backed Yes31c62.98$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.453333.3%11 W · 22 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+19.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7373…7701backed Yes67c62.5$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.912828.6%8 W · 20 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-28.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x75b0…e7b7backed No74c60$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.41,58578.5%1,244 W · 341 L+39.7wins+0.03per pick76cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe581…276fbacked Yes47c59.88$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.46633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick19cpaid+98.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe233…c70bbacked No72c58.7$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.4354966.7%366 W · 183 L-27.1wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5614…83d0backed No40c58.27$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.45540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-27.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No28c57.77$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2435854.7%196 W · 162 L-13.7wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes27c56.61$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.5256131.7%178 W · 383 L+2.6wins0.00per pick31cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2fa0…aa66backed No70c56.04$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.23520%1 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.41per pick61cpaid-71.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes33c55.34$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.352,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes23c54.64$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.2564333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07ac…ab30backed Yes30c53.81$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.96719.4%13 W · 54 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-24.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes53c52.42$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.6461929.1%180 W · 439 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb964…927fbacked Yes29c51.91$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.6718327.3%50 W · 133 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ee3…0e6ebacked Yes28c51.08$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.792420.8%5 W · 19 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No39c50.69$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9612,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x0638…df07backed Yes37c50.57$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.831855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.