TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on April 25?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$54,340
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$52,056

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,340 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 248 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x28f7…9a6abacked Yes18c1,626$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.8310843.5%47 W · 61 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes24c1,446$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.942130.4%128 W · 293 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xeb1d…de1cbacked Yes3c970.6$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.114645.2%66 W · 80 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-15.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ae8…5a42backed Yes2c950.1$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.94831.3%15 W · 33 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+52.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes33c790.72$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.292,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes27c784.5$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.31,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No63c563.12$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.6112,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc431…97cabacked No33c562.63$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+203%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No46c538.61$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.632,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde9c…e014backed Yes19c498.91$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.5125839.9%103 W · 155 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No66c452.95$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.773,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No65c437.49$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.772,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8d2…39b0backed Yes45c415.83$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.17146.5%33 W · 38 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes40c413.16$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.591,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed No51c409.86$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.7746824.4%114 W · 354 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes46c389.32$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.1617140.4%69 W · 102 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No60c379.04$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.588,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x52ef…1310backed Yes38c372.67$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.955427.8%15 W · 39 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed Yes14c358.93$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.511,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0754…a576backed Yes38c355.7$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.2216437.2%61 W · 103 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6dc6…d496backed Yes45c327.41$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.266657.6%38 W · 28 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+11.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa2b0…bae1backed Yes26c321.02$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.363625%9 W · 27 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-44.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9acf…0cc2backed Yes13c320.97$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.122945.4%104 W · 125 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe272…ac63backed Yes27c317.92$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.920534.1%70 W · 135 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+31.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1eea…00c5backed No69c316.62$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.4422450.4%113 W · 111 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked No64c315.81$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.6631649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7815…6595backed Yes49c310.73$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x27dd…b696backed Yes36c299.78$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.923644.4%16 W · 20 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa128…541ebacked No37c298.99$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.312944.8%13 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b20…bc23backed No62c286.8$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.881165.8%534 W · 277 L-37.1wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-6.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes40c282.91$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.161,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No56c278.78$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.714,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b7c…7f28backed No73c271.56$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.362842.9%12 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-15%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3e…d953backed Yes58c262.63$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.56369.8%44 W · 19 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+1.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No68c253.09$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.2212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xc501…d0f1backed Yes19c251.6$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.782441.7%10 W · 14 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc629…c3e5backed Yes41c249.16$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.46825%2 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-35.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes28c244.47$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.815,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a90…d8debacked Yes21c243.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.262321.7%5 W · 18 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick31cpaid-66.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9453…22cfbacked Yes36c231.37$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.2840%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x91b0…5676backed Yes42c223.36$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.2250%0 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf383…c49fbacked Yes5c218.56$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a88…f471backed Yes33c199.91$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.9729732.3%96 W · 201 L+0.9wins0.00per pick32cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No67c195.44$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.4398571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0be4…2ed6backed Yes34c194.7$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.25846.6%27 W · 31 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes37c185.14$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.137,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2be…4a4cbacked No66c184.34$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.342445.8%11 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes22c178.82$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.542,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x747c…443bbacked Yes35c166.01$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.968643%37 W · 49 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb378…e4c0backed Yes22c160$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352433.3%8 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+16.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No64c158.83$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.535,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes30c157.86$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.9435232.7%115 W · 237 L+20.9wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+40.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2f8b…a682backed No43c155.45$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.141921.1%4 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae47…638dbacked No66c152.5$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.7552571.2%374 W · 151 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes30c151.88$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.170133.5%235 W · 466 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f3b…b13bbacked Yes34c150.07$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.383246.9%15 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-15.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No54c147.57$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.884,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x86bd…2c98backed Yes32c143.55$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.8415131.1%47 W · 104 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No60c133.11$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.1197570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes36c129.33$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.331,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes33c128.37$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.2519541.5%81 W · 114 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82f7…4bf0backed Yes18c127.74$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.951145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x652f…bc41backed Yes30c120.9$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.275349.1%26 W · 27 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-14%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x59d4…b745backed Yes15c119.79$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3927540%110 W · 165 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1df8…6c4ebacked Yes40c118.05$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.165729.8%17 W · 40 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-21%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe188…197bbacked Yes38c117.59$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.688536.5%31 W · 54 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc323…4408backed No61c111.86$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.5933567.5%226 W · 109 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8aa9…ba48backed Yes37c105.5$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.04633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-30.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x080e…da87backed Yes38c104.36$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.8718534.6%64 W · 121 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09c2…8210backed Yes27c103.17$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7654154%292 W · 249 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed No52c103.06$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.7698160.6%594 W · 387 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf37b…2bcabacked Yes36c103.01$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.53026.7%8 W · 22 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-22.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b11…2976backed Yes47c101.06$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.3449941.7%208 W · 291 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8208…a737backed No66c100.51$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.1822675.7%171 W · 55 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick72cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd482…355dbacked Yes35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.17per pick30cpaid-63.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd31…0a42backed Yes30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3012638.1%48 W · 78 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0199…737abacked Yes25c99.97$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.58955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick43cpaid+15.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes29c99.95$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.981,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x306e…3a7cbacked Yes33c97.65$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.224037.5%15 W · 25 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdc97…da82backed Yes50c95.41$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.2411646.6%54 W · 62 L-0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee4f…89f5backed Yes48c94.78$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.532138.1%8 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-16.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc52f…0981backed No65c93.93$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.2214671.2%104 W · 42 L-0.1wins0.00per pick71cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafe0…1b89backed Yes37c93.44$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.221560%9 W · 6 L+2.8wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+43.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe9b7…8030backed No66c89.35$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.612564.8%81 W · 44 L+0.2wins0.00per pick65cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a1d…55c4backed Yes68c88.74$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.573339.4%13 W · 20 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-1.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes50c87.3$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.3223463.7%149 W · 85 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0bd…fe2abacked Yes46c87.23$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9110642.5%45 W · 61 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No62c85.89$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.031,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea0d…c1b6backed No69c84.75$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.4321676.4%165 W · 51 L+12.5wins+0.06per pick71cpaid+5.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd0e1…7e35backed Yes27c84.73$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.245628.6%16 W · 40 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick30cpaid+7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29de…d9e6backed Yes32c84.35$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.211122.5%25 W · 86 L-9.3wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-14.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x261e…c09fbacked Yes41c83.76$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5911835.6%42 W · 76 L+0.6wins0.00per pick35cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb201…2766backed Yes41c83.72$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.473946.2%18 W · 21 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb97d…d445backed Yes32c81.03$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.31827.8%5 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-18.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b20…eb02backed Yes31c80.1$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1534846.6%162 W · 186 L+14.6wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x26ad…8c4ebacked Yes38c80$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.41330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb62…d14fbacked Yes22c79.44$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.155050%25 W · 25 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8454…3587backed No72c77.74$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.9627376.6%209 W · 64 L+0.5wins0.00per pick76cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf05a…d78fbacked No64c77.52$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.9112670.6%89 W · 37 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.