Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on April 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x87d0c8e54af59a5ace2c2ab3151e2763d22eee0283b30c80309ecb9ff059990b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,004
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,066
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,004 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc501…d0f1backed Yes | 2c | 1,101$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 16c | 999.84$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.98 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee4f…89f5backed Yes | 1c | 983.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 11c | 903.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.87 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 13c | 761.92$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.38 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x579d…247cbacked Yes | 5c | 725.97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.91 | 77 | 29.9%23 W · 54 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 13c | 677.5$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.21 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 16c | 473.9$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.15 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 8c | 339.77$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 11c | 299.02$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.67 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 6c | 289.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes | 8c | 278.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 8c | 264.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 12c | 237.21$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 6c | 220.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 17c | 212.24$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 8c | 201.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf132…c706backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 308 | 13.6%42 W · 266 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ac63backed Yes | 14c | 189.95$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 205 | 34.1%70 W · 135 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff69…16b5backed Yes | 12c | 175.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91b0…5676backed Yes | 16c | 174.69$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.47 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3e…e0f1backed Yes | 14c | 174.37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 80 | 13.8%11 W · 69 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 14c | 160.63$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a90…d8debacked Yes | 13c | 159.93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 11c | 150.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc629…c3e5backed Yes | 25c | 147.03$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 16c | 127.34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…2c6bbacked Yes | 9c | 124.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 188 | 14.4%27 W · 161 L | -14.7wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 11c | 121.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c3…53a2backed Yes | 23c | 119.17$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…197bbacked Yes | 12c | 117.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 17c | 111.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x130e…cc45backed Yes | 20c | 104.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x080e…da87backed Yes | 23c | 101.17$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 185 | 34.6%64 W · 121 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef28…2d50backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 126 | 24.6%31 W · 95 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…5d51backed Yes | 14c | 97.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed No | 78c | 97.8$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.52 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b04…f467backed Yes | 14c | 96.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -20%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 24c | 96.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked Yes | 11c | 94.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 14c | 93.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58ff…7e02backed No | 78c | 92.11$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.26 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1411…6b02backed Yes | 15c | 89.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e1b…8752backed Yes | 21c | 84.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 24c | 75.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 16c | 71.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 77c | 64.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.87 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 76c | 59.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26ad…8c4ebacked Yes | 25c | 54.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked No | 78c | 51.83$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed No | 77c | 45.84$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 75c | 34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 78c | 27.32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8aa…a1acbacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +51%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 76c | 24.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb87b…aeeebacked No | 76c | 24.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 74c | 21.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f01…4c3abacked No | 78c | 15.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.34 | 161 | 59%95 W · 66 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…9161backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 76c | 13.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.28 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28f8…b5f7backed No | 78c | 13.31$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4dd…8744backed No | 78c | 13.19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.84 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on April 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on April 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C or higher on April 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.