NHL · resolved market
Bruins vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x87702b9e4a423037e1e99dd7fccaa17bea35b78f917aa497ee576a16d1067a2d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,721
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,309
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,721 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 48c | 16,553$7,945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,945.44 | 418 | 42.8%179 W · 239 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 52c | 8,771$4,561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,210.29 | 515 | 50.7%261 W · 254 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 52c | 5,444$2,831 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,612.92 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ae…f001backed Over | 47c | 3,070$1,443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,442.87 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e65…4994backed Under | 54c | 3,068$1,664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,403.56 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Over | 46c | 2,375$1,087 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,086.98 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x773c…cf18backed Under | 53c | 2,130$1,129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,001.1 | 70 | 54.3%38 W · 32 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 52c | 818.87$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.06 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 46c | 624.32$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.1 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 52c | 500$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Under | 52c | 480$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.4 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 55c | 409.44$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.18 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Over | 6c | 384.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 865 | 49.1%425 W · 440 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 9c | 325$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Under | 53c | 316$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.52 | 110 | 58.2%64 W · 46 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0f…a08abacked Under | 53c | 220.74$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.75 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5316…1d07backed Under | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 204 | 44.6%91 W · 113 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59ce…6f07backed Under | 52c | 180$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.4 | 153 | 49%75 W · 78 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Under | 52c | 105.69$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.73 | 143 | 53.1%76 W · 67 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…1950backed Over | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf60…f8d5backed Under | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -8.3wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x465a…c619backed Over | 30c | 65.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 54c | 57$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 276 | 59.4%164 W · 112 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1471…50bfbacked Over | 46c | 54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0eb…af1ebacked Over | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 172 | 27.3%47 W · 125 L | -17.4wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff4…d735backed Under | 30c | 48.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.25 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +3.7wins | +0.31per pick | 27cpaid | +110.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Under | 53c | 44.91$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.11 | 456 | 51.5%235 W · 221 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 52c | 44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Under | 53c | 42.72$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.08 | 156 | 51.9%81 W · 75 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa00e…73fabacked Under | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 212 | 53.3%113 W · 99 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe00b…256fbacked Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbd…98f2backed Over | 48c | 37.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dc…a2ecbacked Over | 50c | 37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 50c | 37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Under | 53c | 32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 207 | 56.5%117 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Over | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 427 | 50.8%217 W · 210 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa13f…0730backed Under | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.34per pick | 50cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb3d…58f5backed Over | 46c | 25.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 157 | 51.6%81 W · 76 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4b…8616backed Under | 54c | 21.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 173 | 43.4%75 W · 98 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5676…7da7backed Under | 53c | 21.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 76c | 20.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bruins vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5this page
- Bruins vs. LightningLightning won
- Bruins vs. Lightning: O/U 4.5Under won
- Bruins vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5Under won
- Bruins vs. Lightning: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)Lightning won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.