NHL · resolved market
Bruins vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdad98126f1847d4106d1c96d9e414c47504bba174b240e1adad09cd2bc48c30d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,388
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,792
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,388 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x31c1…7047backed Over | 60c | 1,368$819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$819 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 59c | 1,342$792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$791.92 | 418 | 42.8%179 W · 239 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 40c | 1,217$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$730.41 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 41c | 1,004$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.44 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 51c | 557.06$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.64 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x505a…bb61backed Over | 55c | 545.4$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd7…6d6cbacked Over | 53c | 431.9$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.5 | 152 | 65.1%99 W · 53 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Over | 20c | 393.01$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.6 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 41c | 380.02$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.21 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b84…2f73backed Under | 80c | 375$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 43c | 369.1$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.29 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 42c | 315$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.7 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Under | 41c | 253.59$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.79 | 154 | 44.8%69 W · 85 L | -11.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…d4fbbacked Over | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 145 | 60.7%88 W · 57 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 56c | 150$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.5 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 62c | 119$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.28 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 47c | 110$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.3 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 42c | 100.84$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.98 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff89…9c06backed Over | 59c | 85.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.21 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under | 57c | 77$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.44 | 1,054 | 42.5%448 W · 606 L | -25.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc313…6645backed Over | 59c | 72.88$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0eb…af1ebacked Over | 32c | 62.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 172 | 27.3%47 W · 125 L | -17.4wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x913f…d2ebbacked Over | 59c | 59.17$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Under | 54c | 50.91$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.34 | 253 | 45.5%115 W · 138 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 31c | 48.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 190 | 33.7%64 W · 126 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d96…e396backed Over | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 49cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8138…1052backed Over | 59c | 33.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Under | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 202 | 45%91 W · 111 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Over | 58c | 29.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 427 | 50.8%217 W · 210 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…792abacked Over | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5f…2f5ebacked Under | 55c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 87 | 57.5%50 W · 37 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bruins vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5this page
- Bruins vs. LightningLightning won
- Bruins vs. Lightning: O/U 4.5Under won
- Bruins vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5Under won
- Bruins vs. Lightning: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)Lightning won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.