CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: MOUZ NXT vs Qual4 (BO1) - Conquest of Prague Online Stage Group Stage
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x87be10ebf2038097f2c4828fa7309ed8478855ac7b90d8d58b54d655bfaad9f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- MOUZ NXTof MOUZ NXT, Qual4
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,427
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,037
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,427 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde8f…2c72backed MOUZ NXT | 73c | 5,341$3,917 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,423.77 | 280 | 56.4%158 W · 122 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d22…4b50backed MOUZ NXT | 72c | 4,553$3,288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,264.65 | 205 | 54.1%111 W · 94 L | +17.3wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb64…bfdcbacked Qual4 | 38c | 2,625$997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$997.35 | 183 | 41%75 W · 108 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed MOUZ NXT | 75c | 1,808$1,347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.22 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Qual4 | 26c | 1,797$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.19 | 1,573 | 35.3%556 W · 1,017 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36d8…c7c7backed Qual4 | 28c | 1,008$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.02 | 576 | 41.5%239 W · 337 L | -8.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f17…7035backed MOUZ NXT | 64c | 1,002$646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.75 | 454 | 65.9%299 W · 155 L | +20.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…26b7backed Qual4 | 27c | 955.17$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.81 | 330 | 44.5%147 W · 183 L | +7.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fbf…4605backed Qual4 | 27c | 922.65$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.14 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6277…5a3fbacked Qual4 | 26c | 800.57$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.33 | 635 | 41.9%266 W · 369 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef20…8f64backed Qual4 | 27c | 780.39$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.71 | 123 | 34.1%42 W · 81 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Qual4 | 28c | 772.11$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.94 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48b8…4b69backed MOUZ NXT | 62c | 747.83$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.18 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24d4…4e1dbacked Qual4 | 28c | 723.67$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.9 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40fc…498dbacked Qual4 | 26c | 683.19$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.17 | 144 | 41%59 W · 85 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4912…b76fbacked Qual4 | 26c | 569.54$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.24 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7673…fa40backed Qual4 | 27c | 531.22$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.43 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6326…6329backed Qual4 | 28c | 502.32$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.65 | 593 | 43.2%256 W · 337 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab6…078ebacked Qual4 | 25c | 382$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.5 | 239 | 52.3%125 W · 114 L | +14.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb66…c8dfbacked Qual4 | 26c | 341.15$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.7 | 84 | 45.2%38 W · 46 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6e…99eabacked MOUZ NXT | 72c | 318.2$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.1 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb57f…0c96backed Qual4 | 26c | 265.22$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.96 | 215 | 45.6%98 W · 117 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Qual4 | 7c | 260.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 104 | 42.3%44 W · 60 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked MOUZ NXT | 74c | 230.75$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.75 | 1,262 | 46.9%592 W · 670 L | -34.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xced8…221ebacked MOUZ NXT | 72c | 200$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 700 | 38.9%272 W · 428 L | -29.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed MOUZ NXT | 74c | 175$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.5 | 2,061 | 50.7%1,045 W · 1,016 L | -18.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee4…471fbacked MOUZ NXT | 62c | 157.61$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.89 | 357 | 52.9%189 W · 168 L | +22.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc08…6b85backed Qual4 | 25c | 146.92$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.73 | 217 | 52.5%114 W · 103 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dcc…e8ccbacked Qual4 | 28c | 142.08$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.78 | 154 | 41.6%64 W · 90 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2133…7903backed Qual4 | 26c | 135.7$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 388 | 35.8%139 W · 249 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed MOUZ NXT | 71c | 135.38$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.75 | 1,618 | 46.8%758 W · 860 L | -28.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed MOUZ NXT | 73c | 128$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.56 | 402 | 47.8%192 W · 210 L | +11.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b2…2171backed Qual4 | 24c | 102.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x021a…d3aebacked Qual4 | 26c | 101.69$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.44 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Qual4 | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 328 | 45.1%148 W · 180 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3177…cb28backed MOUZ NXT | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 79 | 58.2%46 W · 33 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Qual4 | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | -8.2wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f9…d587backed Qual4 | 11c | 94.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 350 | 33.4%117 W · 233 L | +22.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Qual4 | 27c | 88.54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 193 | 44%85 W · 108 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d36…d467backed MOUZ NXT | 75c | 65.67$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2957…b26abacked Qual4 | 26c | 53.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 230 | 38.3%88 W · 142 L | -15.3wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1634…b32fbacked MOUZ NXT | 77c | 51.23$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Qual4 | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 558 | 43.5%243 W · 315 L | -16.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02d1…9599backed Qual4 | 32c | 40.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe59…0d2ebacked MOUZ NXT | 60c | 40.08$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 583 | 43.6%254 W · 329 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Qual4 | 26c | 38.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,102 | 16.8%353 W · 1,749 L | -286.5wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d4…3a45backed Qual4 | 40c | 36.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a84…af78backed Qual4 | 38c | 31.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 71 | 31%22 W · 49 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked MOUZ NXT | 74c | 29.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 472 | 60%283 W · 189 L | +31.8wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb4…6eacbacked MOUZ NXT | 76c | 25.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 64cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe245…3bc8backed MOUZ NXT | 69c | 25.56$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 217 | 56.7%123 W · 94 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad85…a8ffbacked MOUZ NXT | 76c | 24.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98b4…5d76backed MOUZ NXT | 76c | 24.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked MOUZ NXT | 64c | 24.46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf512…5198backed MOUZ NXT | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 164 | 64.6%106 W · 58 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…9d28backed MOUZ NXT | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba9…4fa1backed MOUZ NXT | 76c | 17.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.26 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…348ebacked MOUZ NXT | 73c | 14.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.