Europa Conference League · resolved market
RC Celta de Vigo vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x87ca757d7258af19590277908f00aaffeb41cbce2876cd369dfd9e5c1c769c9f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,989
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,568
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,989 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 76c | 8,543$6,493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,049.76 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 22c | 6,593$1,471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,470.81 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 21c | 6,164$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked Over | 34c | 4,933$1,658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,657.9 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 71c | 2,956$2,097 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$859.23 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 21c | 1,792$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.29 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Under | 77c | 1,400$1,082 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.03 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | -5.2wins | -0.11per pick | 63cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Under | 77c | 758.97$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.86 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Under | 69c | 652.17$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.17 | 107 | 57%61 W · 46 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 71c | 443.99$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.76 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a0…f967backed Over | 28c | 170$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.1 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked Under | 58c | 140$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.8 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.23per pick | 50cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x98e0…bf01backed Under | 68c | 82.68$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.46 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b77…11d2backed Over | 18c | 72.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.28per pick | 38cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 76c | 71.67$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 122 | 47.5%58 W · 64 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…91bbbacked Under | 68c | 66$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1aa…378bbacked Over | 20c | 55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…07d8backed Under | 73c | 52$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 58cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3647…6250backed Under | 59c | 49.15$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 29c | 46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 361 | 36%130 W · 231 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2c…ac5ebacked Under | 67c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +3.8wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +63%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d8…c8c0backed Under | 73c | 44$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x426a…128bbacked Under | 75c | 35.13$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bc…1e51backed Under | 73c | 31.71$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Under | 78c | 30.54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 69c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 379 | 26.1%99 W · 280 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 68c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 351 | 58.1%204 W · 147 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x536d…07fdbacked Under | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb29…ea29backed Under | 77c | 20.42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1436…e23dbacked Under | 73c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -3.9wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- RC Celta de Vigo vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 3.5this page
- RC Celta de Vigo vs. Bologna FC 1909: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- RC Celta de Vigo vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 1.5Over won
- RC Celta de Vigo vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 2.5Over won
- Spread: RC Celta de Vigo (-1.5)Bologna FC 1909 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.