Europa Conference League · resolved market
RC Celta de Vigo vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x322c7447d8c34d0088619e40e21e9317a83e1006826265ea29a13f0836c6b7af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,297
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,885
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,297 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 20c | 4,131$818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$818.31 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb737…98b9backed Over | 79c | 1,582$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 30c | 1,449$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.45 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over | 79c | 1,266$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.82 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | -5.2wins | -0.11per pick | 63cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed Under | 4c | 1,209$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.42 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | +8.1wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +108.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 19c | 745.43$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.76 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 25c | 443.99$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe7…fa80backed Over | 75c | 333.26$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.26 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Over | 78c | 300$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 154 | 59.1%91 W · 63 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc450…f2f7backed Over | 79c | 285.51$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.51 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc994…f4ebbacked Over | 75c | 266.89$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.72 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…a6fabacked Over | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 76cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 25c | 156.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 379 | 26.1%99 W · 280 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb29…ea29backed Under | 13c | 139.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Under | 33c | 130.02$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.26 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22b2…e7cfbacked Over | 75c | 106.33$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.33 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df8…475cbacked Over | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 77cpaid | -57%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 25c | 98.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 338 | 47%159 W · 179 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa40d…f4d0backed Over | 76c | 91.55$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.97 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Over | 77c | 65.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 45 | 68.9%31 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7567…0923backed Under | 21c | 65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbf…98b6backed Over | 79c | 55.03$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 78cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x884d…1da6backed Over | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 24c | 46.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 428 | 44.9%192 W · 236 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50f7…7272backed Over | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb7…8745backed Over | 79c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1d…f32cbacked Over | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7690…92cbbacked Over | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa305…73c9backed Over | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89fe…4293backed Over | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cce…ebfebacked Over | 79c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.73 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.9wins | -0.41per pick | 69cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- RC Celta de Vigo vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 1.5this page
- RC Celta de Vigo vs. Bologna FC 1909: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- RC Celta de Vigo vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 2.5Over won
- RC Celta de Vigo vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: RC Celta de Vigo (-1.5)Bologna FC 1909 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.