Tennis · resolved market
ITF Astana: Sera Nishimoto vs Kristina Kroitor
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x87fbf9c6e46220815fecb2f98591350768ba5568b716f3233b6ad7cc2b19c175
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kristina Kroitorof Sera Nishimoto, Kristina Kroitor
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,921
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,756
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,921 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Sera Nishimoto | 29c | 18,401$5,355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,354.5 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Kristina Kroitor | 69c | 17,036$11,821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,214.99 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Sera Nishimoto | 12c | 1,515$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.08 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf983…39a0backed Sera Nishimoto | 22c | 683.47$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.08 | 101 | 35.6%36 W · 65 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Sera Nishimoto | 17c | 471.86$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.03 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Sera Nishimoto | 21c | 306.49$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.56 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7cb…fbe2backed Sera Nishimoto | 9c | 280$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 40 | 2.5%1 W · 39 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa72a…5685backed Kristina Kroitor | 76c | 259.68$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.01 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Kristina Kroitor | 58c | 253.89$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.89 | 1,417 | 45.2%640 W · 777 L | +41.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfce…5c3ebacked Kristina Kroitor | 66c | 186.08$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.85 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc9…29a8backed Sera Nishimoto | 9c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 45 | 2.2%1 W · 44 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 10cpaid | -88.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f34…ed6abacked Sera Nishimoto | 32c | 135.28$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.48 | 397 | 51.4%204 W · 193 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Sera Nishimoto | 10c | 131.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 1,227 | 53.2%653 W · 574 L | -5.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67a1…1c91backed Kristina Kroitor | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 203 | 60.1%122 W · 81 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed Kristina Kroitor | 70c | 81.99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.39 | 561 | 53.7%301 W · 260 L | +14.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Sera Nishimoto | 18c | 68.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Sera Nishimoto | 34c | 65.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 829 | 58.1%482 W · 347 L | +17.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57e7…84e9backed Sera Nishimoto | 32c | 58.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 226 | 38.9%88 W · 138 L | -13.6wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e20…5cf9backed Sera Nishimoto | 25c | 56.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 355 | 55.5%197 W · 158 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked Sera Nishimoto | 39c | 51.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 625 | 49.6%310 W · 315 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2721…cf8abacked Sera Nishimoto | 30c | 41.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Kristina Kroitor | 60c | 40.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 1,276 | 61%778 W · 498 L | +27.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33d2…9ac2backed Sera Nishimoto | 30c | 33.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 146 | 44.5%65 W · 81 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce6a…77b8backed Kristina Kroitor | 75c | 27.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0c…47eabacked Kristina Kroitor | 80c | 21.06$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Kristina Kroitor | 53c | 20.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 442 | 29.6%131 W · 311 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked Kristina Kroitor | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 923 | 52.5%485 W · 438 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42a1…a8e9backed Kristina Kroitor | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 394 | 51.3%202 W · 192 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Kristina Kroitor | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 1,175 | 52.9%622 W · 553 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…11c5backed Kristina Kroitor | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 739 | 51.7%382 W · 357 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb37…189abacked Kristina Kroitor | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x061a…5a89backed Kristina Kroitor | 62c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 521 | 57%297 W · 224 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc62f…1781backed Kristina Kroitor | 63c | 17.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 266 | 64.7%172 W · 94 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.