Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will NK Varaždin vs. FK Jablonec end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x880aeba18a86cbe249797d687642e7f6f22ec47b2e94ce0c53848ab3ff2e2556
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,049
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,054
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,049 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 56c | 5,596$3,126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,125.55 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked No | 44c | 5,072$2,212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,859.16 | 558 | 45%251 W · 307 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked No | 44c | 1,426$629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$797.68 | 314 | 30.3%95 W · 219 L | -15.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 40c | 687.19$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.34 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3740…a935backed Yes | 65c | 500$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 127 | 70.9%90 W · 37 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Yes | 56c | 281.74$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.01 | 852 | 60.9%519 W · 333 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 19c | 258.36$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.11 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3740…f38dbacked Yes | 54c | 185.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Yes | 61c | 114$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.06 | 535 | 64.7%346 W · 189 L | +29.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 35c | 110.75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…0bb1backed Yes | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 32c | 103.22$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.06 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3b…07c9backed No | 45c | 99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.42 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -8.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Yes | 67c | 70.46$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.21 | 169 | 40.2%68 W · 101 L | -11.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0b…3790backed No | 43c | 47.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 90 | 21.1%19 W · 71 L | +8.7wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8509…fd97backed Yes | 53c | 40.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked No | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 192 | 50.5%97 W · 95 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 62c | 39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda22…f431backed No | 63c | 38.77$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 73c | 37.43$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 795 | 32.2%256 W · 539 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed No | 60c | 35.69$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 334 | 46.7%156 W · 178 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Yes | 64c | 35.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 296 | 54.1%160 W · 136 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Yes | 58c | 29.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 294 | 70.1%206 W · 88 L | +21.6wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 63c | 25.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 451 | 35.9%162 W · 289 L | -19.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 84 | 63.1%53 W · 31 L | +8.0wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NK Varaždin vs. FK Jablonec end in a draw?this page
- Will FK Jablonec win on 2026-07-23?No won
- Will NK Varaždin win on 2026-07-23?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.