NFL · resolved market
Spread: KC (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x88217f8cee4787411d186a1af89f76b1021a0254eabe34a037e43db2099c90c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- KCof KC, NYG
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,573
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,802
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,573 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4d75…74a5backed KC | 43c | 23,123$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,123.23 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked NYG | 56c | 14,702$8,303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,303.23 | 225 | 48.4%109 W · 116 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked NYG | 56c | 2,250$1,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,260 | 397 | 54.4%216 W · 181 L | +26.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed NYG | 56c | 2,171$1,215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,215.48 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2630…e941backed NYG | 58c | 1,565$908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$907.7 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8c…abbabacked KC | 42c | 1,565$657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$907.7 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a32…6d7ebacked NYG | 57c | 1,401$795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$794.69 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked NYG | 58c | 1,231$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714.11 | 246 | 52%128 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb511…dedfbacked NYG | 65c | 1,050$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682.18 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed NYG | 58c | 870$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.6 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked KC | 52c | 822.15$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.07 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44a0…c3b9backed NYG | 57c | 501$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.58 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed KC | 44c | 310$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.6 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7546…3a91backed NYG | 56c | 300$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | -6.2wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b86…0669backed NYG | 58c | 300$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 104 | 34.6%36 W · 68 L | -8.6wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7c…8eabbacked NYG | 60c | 250$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 136 | 52.2%71 W · 65 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b80…657fbacked NYG | 57c | 232$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.24 | 157 | 46.5%73 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6edc…18cebacked NYG | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed NYG | 56c | 107.63$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.63 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed KC | 45c | 94.44$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.94 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…5b15backed NYG | 55c | 94.44$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.94 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…936fbacked KC | 42c | 76$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.08 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dce…38ecbacked KC | 45c | 48.89$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.89 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aaa…8212backed NYG | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed11…a858backed NYG | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.22per pick | 36cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: KC (-7.5)this page
- Chiefs vs. GiantsChiefs won
- KC vs. NYG: O/U 51.5Under won
- KC vs. NYG: O/U 55.5Under won
- KC vs. NYG: O/U 57.5Under won
- KC vs. NYG: O/U 58.5Under won
- Spread: KC (-10.5)KC won
- Spread: KC (-4.5)KC won
- Spread: KC (-6.5)KC won
- Spread: KC (-8.5)KC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.