NFL · resolved market

Spread: KC (-4.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9cb37548d4fb1faa28b6656923395d3f42d46f1c038fd903269580ba81a44a1b

Rebuilt 2 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: KCof KC, NYG
Resolved: Sep 22, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $27,183
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $31,845

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,183 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NFL
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x0a77…9d74backed NYG	45c	7,618$3,436 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,436.4	373	50.9%190 W · 183 L	+12.9wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7fb7…e33dbacked NYG	44c	4,695$2,075 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,075.01	418	51.9%217 W · 201 L	+13.1wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd034…48a2backed KC	57c	3,246$1,842 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,404.24	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-1.2wins	-0.13per pick	46cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb2f…eca9backed NYG	44c	2,656$1,169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,168.72	173	48%83 W · 90 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8a4…9e63backed KC	55c	2,265$1,249 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,016.29	23	47.8%11 W · 12 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-11%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked NYG	45c	2,000$900 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$900	114	46.5%53 W · 61 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x362f…7114backed KC	55c	1,109$610 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$499.09	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	0%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9158…fa7bbacked KC	54c	1,086$586 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$499.56	114	45.6%52 W · 62 L	-3.9wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa613…d494backed KC	55c	1,060$583 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$477.04	88	56.8%50 W · 38 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	55cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked KC	56c	1,020$569 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$451.26	446	52.9%236 W · 210 L	+4.2wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed NYG	44c	1,002$439 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$438.86	834	47.1%393 W · 441 L	+9.0wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9733…f034backed KC	55c	1,000$550 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$450	171	44.4%76 W · 95 L	-4.8wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2359…f72bbacked KC	56c	800$448 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$352	87	50.6%44 W · 43 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7eda…4bb7backed KC	59c	780$460 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$320.2	143	44.1%63 W · 80 L	-8.1wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked NYG	50c	762.45$385 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$385	1,065	51.3%546 W · 519 L	+25.3wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf267…0a4cbacked NYG	43c	700$301 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$301	31	51.6%16 W · 15 L	+1.2wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3613…79e1backed KC	55c	700$385 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$315	194	36.6%71 W · 123 L	-14.8wins	-0.08per pick	44cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3a32…6d7ebacked NYG	43c	700$301 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$301	45	51.1%23 W · 22 L	+2.0wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4673…d99bbacked KC	55c	650$358 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$292.5	285	56.5%161 W · 124 L	+9.3wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd561…9423backed KC	56c	535.71$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$235.71	104	67.3%70 W · 34 L	+9.5wins	+0.09per pick	58cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x25f4…20e0backed KC	56c	535.71$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$235.71	24	62.5%15 W · 9 L	+2.4wins	+0.10per pick	52cpaid	+18.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfd10…f782backed KC	55c	410.76$226 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$184.84	50	62%31 W · 19 L	+3.3wins	+0.07per pick	55cpaid	+12.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbf6…513abacked NYG	43c	294$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.42	66	48.5%32 W · 34 L	+2.3wins	+0.04per pick	45cpaid	+12%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f78…31a4backed KC	55c	284.96$157 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$128.23	18	50%9 W · 9 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed NYG	34c	280$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.2	611	48.6%297 W · 314 L	+10.7wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x53f1…9434backed KC	55c	181.82$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$81.82	19	57.9%11 W · 8 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed KC	55c	180$99 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$81	330	47.9%158 W · 172 L	-3.0wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89d1…6448backed KC	56c	178.57$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78.57	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.11per pick	56cpaid	+14.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a34…56cfbacked KC	56c	158.73$89 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$69.84	39	56.4%22 W · 17 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked KC	50c	152.88$76 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$76.63	225	48.4%109 W · 116 L	+5.2wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7312…d40dbacked KC	56c	115.63$65 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.87	18	66.7%12 W · 6 L	+2.1wins	+0.12per pick	55cpaid	+32.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbb36…9545backed NYG	43c	104.22$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.82	76	44.7%34 W · 42 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x681d…4cbfbacked KC	56c	89.29$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.29	170	47.1%80 W · 90 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecf5…6a01backed KC	56c	71.43$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.43	29	34.5%10 W · 19 L	-4.7wins	-0.16per pick	51cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd5c7…620dbacked KC	55c	50.91$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.91	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.13per pick	46cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb272…2febbacked KC	56c	50$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22	23	65.2%15 W · 8 L	+2.1wins	+0.09per pick	56cpaid	+15.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7dce…38ecbacked NYG	47c	46.81$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	29	51.7%15 W · 14 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xacd8…b9f6backed KC	56c	44.64$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.64	29	48.3%14 W · 15 L	-2.4wins	-0.08per pick	57cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa5dc…ec43backed KC	55c	40$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18	153	52.3%80 W · 73 L	-3.6wins	-0.02per pick	55cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32f4…c885backed KC	56c	40$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.6	310	32.6%101 W · 209 L	-8.9wins	-0.03per pick	35cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1bfd…3462backed NYG	46c	32.61$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	67	52.2%35 W · 32 L	+2.2wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+13.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x471a…e242backed KC	55c	30$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.5	33	42.4%14 W · 19 L	-4.5wins	-0.14per pick	56cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: KC (-4.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event