Serie A · resolved market
SS Lazio vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x883b7336076908423fedccc62c89abb415e1a107fa1baf4c37d1d3391cf88e28
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,182
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,192
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,182 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x82c0…02fdbacked Over | 11c | 348.48$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.48 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 11c | 250$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.5 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c34…1d5bbacked Over | 11c | 229.36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.36 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +102.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x699c…3600backed Under | 80c | 160$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e6…71e4backed Under | 80c | 142$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.6 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 21c | 133.91$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.84 | 387 | 44.7%173 W · 214 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Over | 21c | 119.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.05 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…0ab8backed Under | 80c | 106$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.8 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd0…4938backed Under | 80c | 90$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc368…0b4ebacked Under | 80c | 89$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.2 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Over | 20c | 89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.2 | 592 | 40.7%241 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xede6…89c4backed Over | 20c | 65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under | 77c | 43$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.11 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 79c | 29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x330e…c22abacked Under | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 64cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SS Lazio vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 3.5this page
- SS Lazio vs. ACF Fiorentina: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SS Lazio vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 1.5Over won
- SS Lazio vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 2.5Over won
- SS Lazio vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: SS Lazio (-1.5)ACF Fiorentina won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.