Serie A · resolved market
SS Lazio vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd25111ee23a7f3b407633528e647462c581a5ca1fa1c94958a87ab42f799a964
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,961
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,881
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,961 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8230…5121backed Under | 10c | 1,022$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.2 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 43c | 857.1$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.39 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 32c | 390.77$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.21 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Over | 68c | 316.43$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.26 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8942…1e76backed Over | 68c | 294.12$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.12 | 79 | 54.4%43 W · 36 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 54c | 250$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 156 | 48.7%76 W · 80 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb6…2abbbacked Under | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 74 | 12.2%9 W · 65 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +76%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd235…6eebbacked Over | 39c | 102.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.56 | 152 | 38.8%59 W · 93 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x450f…9479backed Over | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.84 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +4.7wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…eff7backed Over | 67c | 99$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.67 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee8f…9f44backed Over | 68c | 83.82$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.82 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +3.8wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc368…0b4ebacked Over | 67c | 81$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.73 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 179 | 58.7%105 W · 74 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 44c | 77.06$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.54 | 932 | 52%485 W · 447 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Over | 51c | 60.94$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.94 | 151 | 41.7%63 W · 88 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 47c | 54.93$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 68c | 54.47$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.51 | 144 | 52.1%75 W · 69 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 44c | 50.03$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 527 | 48%253 W · 274 L | -35.4wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Under | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 179 | 55.3%99 W · 80 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7802…d5b4backed Over | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecd…b2c0backed Under | 33c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 345 | 53.9%186 W · 159 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a4…aeb8backed Under | 33c | 38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1d…f32cbacked Over | 54c | 37.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a88…2bffbacked Under | 33c | 33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 368 | 52.7%194 W · 174 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc32…00bfbacked Over | 51c | 29.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 81 | 58%47 W · 34 L | +6.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd995…24dbbacked Over | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f6…4288backed Over | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 23 | 87%20 W · 3 L | +3.9wins | +0.17per pick | 70cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 52c | 27.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75c0…dfd2backed Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d84…6df0backed Over | 62c | 23.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SS Lazio vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 1.5this page
- SS Lazio vs. ACF Fiorentina: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SS Lazio vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 2.5Over won
- SS Lazio vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 3.5Over won
- SS Lazio vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: SS Lazio (-1.5)ACF Fiorentina won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.