Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on April 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x88420306128962478a921815e9f75e17ac78978e7a7e5ebc25c0682290b1be46
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,778
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,101
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,778 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 12c | 708.81$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.43 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 12c | 605.68$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.66 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 9c | 527.36$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.58 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 33c | 452.6$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.52 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 14c | 439.59$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.71 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 4c | 380$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 7c | 378.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.53 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b5…47bfbacked Yes | 14c | 357.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe019…f862backed Yes | 11c | 350.13$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.73 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 12c | 227.06$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.83 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 8c | 212.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 27c | 199.24$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.66 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf757…db38backed No | 79c | 177$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.86 | 74 | 23%17 W · 57 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 14c | 176.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 14c | 147.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed Yes | 9c | 142.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12e1…51f6backed Yes | 12c | 139.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 52 | 19.2%10 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 24c | 137.79$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.22 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 12c | 134$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 20c | 114.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 330 | 18.8%62 W · 268 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…06a1backed Yes | 21c | 111.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d98…acb4backed Yes | 17c | 108.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked Yes | 54c | 105.6$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.86 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe208…e98cbacked Yes | 19c | 103.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +5.4wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +22%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2796…2aedbacked No | 46c | 102.83$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.53 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 15c | 101.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 14c | 96.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked No | 73c | 95.47$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.95 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…5289backed Yes | 30c | 83.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 15c | 68.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97dc…f612backed Yes | 53c | 68.69$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.19 | 20 | 85%17 W · 3 L | +5.4wins | +0.27per pick | 58cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 55c | 64.56$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.87 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 78c | 60.68$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed No | 63c | 54.43$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 21c | 52.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb347…a115backed Yes | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 110 | 41.8%46 W · 64 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5e…f21dbacked Yes | 23c | 45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 34c | 37.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc744…955cbacked Yes | 55c | 31.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1be…6471backed No | 68c | 28.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2fd…3d4ebacked Yes | 64c | 22.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.9wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +22%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed No | 53c | 22.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1f…e428backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 99 | 31.3%31 W · 68 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cab…7489backed No | 79c | 19.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 103 | 71.8%74 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f77…6631backed No | 77c | 18.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 79c | 17.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfa…5f7fbacked No | 76c | 14.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on April 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 15°C or below on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 16°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 17°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 18°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 19°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on April 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or higher on April 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.