Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on April 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb5884f2ca50cc64a35958535d1e6a51f678bd0d0cd87d325d49f704d9b5b51ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,898
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,443
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,898 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb10c…6d2cbacked No | 76c | 11,925$9,031 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,031.35 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.19per pick | 34cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 23c | 1,314$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,009.25 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 7c | 1,259$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,174.93 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed Yes | 29c | 1,200$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$852.8 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe019…f862backed Yes | 10c | 1,166$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,053.22 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 43c | 1,120$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.48 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 7c | 1,016$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$946.01 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 58c | 985.35$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.2 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 31c | 669.63$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.8 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 11c | 618.59$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.75 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 19c | 494.38$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.57 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 3c | 480$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x029a…60fcbacked Yes | 12c | 460.32$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.95 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe32…a0e7backed Yes | 32c | 452.01$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.46 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | -9.3wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x69e3…2288backed Yes | 64c | 431.41$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.72 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 29c | 428.04$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.56 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 6c | 356.79$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.99 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1348…7037backed Yes | 69c | 349.34$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.46 | 176 | 65.9%116 W · 60 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd65…c0b1backed Yes | 51c | 304.56$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.28 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 6c | 293.94$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.07 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 261.91$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.6 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked No | 13c | 248.58$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.6 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d0…ad4dbacked Yes | 72c | 248.41$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.27 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 79c | 223.52$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked Yes | 56c | 210.49$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.46 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3182…4ff7backed No | 35c | 201.73$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.56 | 141 | 68.1%96 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 7c | 194.65$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.43 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 75c | 191.18$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.72 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8506…5a06backed Yes | 52c | 178.67$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.89 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 36c | 177.07$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.9 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6f17…0f54backed No | 52c | 173.76$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 9c | 173.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.74 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 44c | 169.32$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.5 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 16c | 167.93$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed Yes | 6c | 165.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.22 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 13c | 148.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70b9…cea8backed Yes | 72c | 147.21$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.56 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 52c | 145.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.54 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…5289backed Yes | 71c | 131.19$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.19 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 11c | 125.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.27 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…06a1backed Yes | 20c | 113.29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.59 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 54c | 112.15$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.77 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaba…e07dbacked No | 54c | 107.79$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 51c | 106.13$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.82 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 80c | 100.62$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.12 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6de…6f5ebacked No | 33c | 94.59$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.77 | 116 | 27.6%32 W · 84 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 21c | 90.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.01 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 36c | 84.61$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.84 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea0…b107backed Yes | 18c | 79.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.71 | 80 | 20%16 W · 64 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 20c | 78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.61 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1be…6471backed Yes | 62c | 77.11$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.99 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb242…eb89backed Yes | 35c | 76.21$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.86 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -8.3wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…6604backed Yes | 65c | 65.32$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.86 | 128 | 56.3%72 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97dc…f612backed Yes | 34c | 51.34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.13 | 20 | 85%17 W · 3 L | +5.4wins | +0.27per pick | 58cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 27c | 49.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.01 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50b9…c4a5backed Yes | 46c | 46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec25…dec6backed Yes | 65c | 42.46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.86 | 111 | 72.1%80 W · 31 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc744…955cbacked Yes | 30c | 41.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x9e22…1b31backed Yes | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 76 | 75%57 W · 19 L | +11.8wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…c6b6backed No | 76c | 39.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.91 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87e9…6df4backed Yes | 69c | 37.66$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde90…dadabacked Yes | 50c | 35.77$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.91 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 40c | 32.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.54 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d98…acb4backed Yes | 74c | 30.66$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed No | 50c | 29.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2fd…3d4ebacked Yes | 48c | 29.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.9wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +22%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xadda…684cbacked Yes | 45c | 25.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 85 | 80%68 W · 17 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed No | 42c | 25.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d8…9dd0backed Yes | 61c | 18.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 123 | 30.1%37 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 80c | 14.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on April 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 15°C or below on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 16°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 17°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 18°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 19°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or higher on April 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.