Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x885ccd470841b15c72dbae88e5f7946393013030e6172982a1c761b35826d67a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,459
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,084
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,459 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd96…fd52backed No | 49c | 609.88$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.88 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14db…7cafbacked No | 42c | 601.61$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.61 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 53c | 372.07$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.82 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 59c | 320.86$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.34 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 64c | 246.98$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.15 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 51c | 180.67$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.4 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…12d4backed Yes | 58c | 178.35$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.44 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.7wins | -0.29per pick | 52cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 15c | 112.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 41c | 111.64$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.14 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 39c | 107.39$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.08 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 53c | 97.28$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.07 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a35…bdc6backed Yes | 53c | 93$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.06 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 47c | 91.92$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.36 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 55c | 81.4$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.37 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5637…21f4backed No | 61c | 77.79$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.34 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -6.0wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 62c | 70.61$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 29c | 68.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed Yes | 60c | 68.33$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.18 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 50c | 67.57$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd212…5182backed Yes | 54c | 65.34$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 51c | 56.27$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.57 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 58c | 55.2$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.09 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 37c | 46.86$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.52 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 46c | 43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55bc…52d8backed Yes | 46c | 38.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 61c | 36.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd594…9d1bbacked No | 52c | 36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 39c | 35.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.79 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…44c4backed Yes | 52c | 35.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 154 | 49.4%76 W · 78 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 61c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No | 42c | 33.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.65 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 58c | 33.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df6…b9a7backed Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 46c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 47c | 31.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 48c | 31.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…a5fbbacked Yes | 61c | 30.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -7.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 38c | 29.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.12 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 48c | 27.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 54c | 25.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.68 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 40c | 24.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 52c | 24.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 50c | 22.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49d5…1eb0backed No | 47c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 52c | 21.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 56c | 21.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 79c | 16.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.43 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on July 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on July 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on July 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.