Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SC Freiburg win on 2025-10-26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x888abd03968ed7243a21a30db5155f042e483b77c1f49a9d3225cbd02f98cb8e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,147
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,964
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,147 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x439b…2c9abacked No | 78c | 3,024$2,359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$665.56 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Yes | 22c | 2,102$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.52 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Yes | 22c | 909.09$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 21c | 612.66$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.66 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +29%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb90c…9a6abacked No | 79c | 600$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6aa…8882backed Yes | 16c | 380.9$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.59 | 72 | 19.4%14 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5f…1dc6backed Yes | 25c | 203.2$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.8 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 24c | 179.17$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.04 | 339 | 45.7%155 W · 184 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 12c | 178.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60ee…a5acbacked Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 23c | 163.63$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.64 | 101 | 28.7%29 W · 72 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x797f…d4e0backed No | 77c | 129.88$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.88 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2b…3e5bbacked No | 77c | 85.71$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.71 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dd…490bbacked No | 73c | 82.19$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.24per pick | 67cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Yes | 24c | 80$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked No | 77c | 51.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57a4…15eabacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 76c | 37.25$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7869…61d8backed No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +16%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca8…9553backed No | 79c | 14.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.12 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SC Freiburg win on 2025-10-26?this page
- Will Bayer Leverkusen vs. SC Freiburg end in a draw?No won
- Will Bayer Leverkusen win on 2025-10-26?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.