Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on April 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x88a55678eaadbb00737d7f94a6373ce2c23c2677100c09bb395fd04ccad83260
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,953
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,154
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,953 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 42c | 473.51$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.99 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb3…0a1fbacked Yes | 30c | 306.38$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.04 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 70c | 257.96$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.01 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb94a…d680backed No | 59c | 249.92$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.65 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked Yes | 63c | 207.97$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.79 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 30c | 203.19$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.96 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 65c | 202.33$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.92 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x339e…c5fbbacked No | 45c | 196.24$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.28 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4a52…baafbacked No | 50c | 174.36$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.83 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed No | 66c | 148.7$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.35 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x182a…f847backed Yes | 49c | 143.72$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.01 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea5b…40cabacked Yes | 41c | 101.24$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.35 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…be31backed Yes | 45c | 97.16$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.67 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 31c | 97.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda26…8fefbacked Yes | 31c | 93.1$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 60c | 92.47$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.93 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 25c | 90$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06f1…c46fbacked No | 45c | 85$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.75 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 55c | 82.82$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6de…9452backed Yes | 39c | 76.52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.83 | 84 | 28.6%24 W · 60 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 70c | 70.29$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.09 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed No | 58c | 67.88$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.77 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6061…0002backed Yes | 53c | 67.25$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.36 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.95 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f4…665ebacked No | 73c | 61.27$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.54 | 142 | 64.1%91 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 18c | 59.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc377…593fbacked No | 64c | 50.39$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.35 | 139 | 64%89 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…b3c3backed Yes | 27c | 49.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…16b9backed Yes | 34c | 47.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 183 | 33.3%61 W · 122 L | -17.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…c34fbacked No | 64c | 47.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 129 | 62.8%81 W · 48 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x747a…f334backed Yes | 49c | 46.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90f5…c4c9backed Yes | 32c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 39c | 44.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 40c | 44.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a14…49d5backed Yes | 36c | 44.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb9…83acbacked Yes | 48c | 39.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +5.3wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 51c | 38.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.76 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…253abacked Yes | 50c | 37.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8b…d33ebacked Yes | 55c | 32.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x815c…1082backed No | 73c | 32.36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 33c | 30.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f60…4127backed No | 73c | 29.15$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 76cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb934…57ebbacked Yes | 45c | 28.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked No | 46c | 25.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x283b…b418backed Yes | 66c | 24.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 49c | 22.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce93…b03bbacked No | 55c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5127…6f96backed No | 76c | 19.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 123 | 74%91 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf05a…d78fbacked No | 76c | 19.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 126 | 70.6%89 W · 37 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 67c | 19.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…256ebacked Yes | 54c | 19.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 233 | 62.2%145 W · 88 L | +33.5wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked No | 54c | 18.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on April 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on April 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on April 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.