Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on April 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9434801003216f3d6548c2bafa525510a62ed4328a19709b9ccb3d3d75279a43
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,175
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,702
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,175 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 53c | 759.72$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.75 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 44c | 628.37$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.34 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 4c | 322.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.78 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 75c | 266$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.5 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc5d…54e1backed Yes | 8c | 226.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.97 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5b…292bbacked No | 11c | 214.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 55c | 182.68$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.74 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4950…32cdbacked No | 80c | 182$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.4 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 76cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 20c | 158.55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 13c | 152.75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.2 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No | 71c | 147.97$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.71 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf0…d2b3backed No | 68c | 143.29$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.75 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.5wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -59%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 63c | 140.32$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.14 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2467…2650backed Yes | 76c | 134.98$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.84 | 88 | 77.3%68 W · 20 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 22c | 118.95$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.2 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 40c | 112.57$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.3 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…be31backed Yes | 25c | 96.08$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.26 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 70c | 94.01$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.97 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x339e…c5fbbacked No | 17c | 91.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd6de…9452backed Yes | 30c | 90.97$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.35 | 84 | 28.6%24 W · 60 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a52…baafbacked No | 17c | 90.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06f1…c46fbacked No | 21c | 87.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc3…37b9backed No | 68c | 83.35$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.97 | 74 | 64.9%48 W · 26 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04a3…3081backed Yes | 26c | 75.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed No | 78c | 75.58$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.58 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 24c | 67.92$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.29 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 21c | 67.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.17 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 16c | 64.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 38c | 49.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 20c | 49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 47c | 38.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed Yes | 42c | 35.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.39 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 74c | 29.14$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 62c | 24.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84e3…3dfdbacked No | 80c | 17.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 148 | 78.4%116 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 74c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…7852backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on April 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on April 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.