NHL · resolved market
Stars vs. Utah: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x88b8668864150e295f55b9292436bf9fe1ea79fc7413dd92fde7cf3beb8975e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,908
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,985
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,908 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 56c | 2,312$1,295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,294.71 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3759…6b3bbacked Under | 44c | 800$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 48c | 767.47$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.18 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 44c | 440.75$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.84 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 52c | 327$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.08 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Over | 42c | 274$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.26 | 115 | 33.9%39 W · 76 L | -9.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Under | 44c | 230$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.8 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd1…7511backed Over | 56c | 208.79$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.92 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Under | 44c | 200$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 599 | 50.4%302 W · 297 L | +20.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4842…b2f4backed Over | 46c | 150$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.88 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…0614backed Over | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -5.0wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…56c2backed Under | 44c | 121.63$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.12 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 45c | 120.78$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.09 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 46c | 105.25$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.7 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3187…896dbacked Over | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aea…ec91backed Over | 55c | 99.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ad…6a69backed Over | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 231 | 58%134 W · 97 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6460…84efbacked Under | 44c | 73.46$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.97 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -5.3wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Under | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49ff…b00abacked Under | 52c | 47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Under | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 54 | 72.2%39 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…dce6backed Over | 55c | 39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 56c | 32.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 740 | 54.5%403 W · 337 L | +22.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3945…7077backed Over | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Stars vs. Utah: O/U 5.5this page
- Spread: Stars (-1.5)Utah won
- Spread: Utah (-1.5)Stars won
- Stars vs. UtahUtah won
- Stars vs. Utah: O/U 6.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.