Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on August 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x88bcf63bdbc52c3a2642d2f60f7c9a449af19a9912874cb1f1a31226f8ed5d0e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,413
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,925
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,413 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 50c | 845.29$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.36 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 34c | 469.82$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 49c | 285$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.65 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 70c | 239.42$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.49 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 47c | 199.63$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.59 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67a3…2b91backed No | 48c | 193.72$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.36 | 38 | 84.2%32 W · 6 L | +5.7wins | +0.15per pick | 69cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 62c | 168.78$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.72 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ae…bcc7backed Yes | 45c | 164$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.8 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 46c | 129.41$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.87 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 31c | 112.76$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.44 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 43c | 104.59$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 49c | 102$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 62c | 87.12$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 62c | 85.5$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…a526backed Yes | 65c | 74.46$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.19 | 154 | 66.9%103 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 27c | 73.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.6 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 40c | 72.25$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.72 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 67c | 71.79$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2edc…a207backed Yes | 43c | 64.75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.02 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 21c | 64.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 62c | 63.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.53 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 53c | 57.88$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.72 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8688…27fbbacked Yes | 41c | 56.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x914d…dd11backed Yes | 77c | 55$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked Yes | 52c | 51.09$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 264 | 42.4%112 W · 152 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764a…83d3backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd2…8eaabacked Yes | 67c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.48 | 122 | 24.6%30 W · 92 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 69c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c97…013bbacked No | 41c | 39.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.19 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 40c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 62c | 34.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 58c | 31.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.11 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 66c | 30.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec6f…b34fbacked Yes | 39c | 26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4dba…3de8backed No | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 44c | 24.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a5…f2e9backed No | 80c | 13.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.63 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on August 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on August 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on August 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.