Europa Conference League · resolved market
Lille OSC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x88c6dbc28567d08b26cfc3828f8167b9394bccde05c945c1093a0c90b0b687f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,319
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,319 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd146…9bf0backed Over | 11c | 3,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 81 | 24.7%20 W · 61 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Over | 10c | 2,271$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.83 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cbb…c561backed Over | 11c | 1,315$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf715…bbf0backed Over | 11c | 454$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.94 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…e31fbacked Under | 79c | 300$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 59cpaid | +50%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over | 21c | 300$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 212 | 43.9%93 W · 119 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc155…e36bbacked Over | 11c | 199.28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8e…0cc4backed Over | 11c | 190.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 47 | 10.6%5 W · 42 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x252f…4f62backed Over | 11c | 183.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -8.4wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -63%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa283…18dcbacked Over | 7c | 165.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 10c | 126.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Over | 10c | 118.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 741 | 55.9%414 W · 327 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x741c…bf80backed Over | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 56 | 16.1%9 W · 47 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lille OSC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Lille OSC vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Lille OSC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Lille OSC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Lille OSC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5)Lille OSC won
- Spread: Aston Villa FC (-2.5)Lille OSC won
- Spread: Lille OSC (-1.5)Aston Villa FC won
- Spread: Lille OSC (-2.5)Aston Villa FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.