Europa Conference League · resolved market
Lille OSC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd41638f8254d5dfa9f939429e08516fa38ef83af7391a38673714fe0a4c24630
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,009
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,009 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 77c | 4,257$3,262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$994.22 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd146…9bf0backed Over | 25c | 2,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.99 | 81 | 24.7%20 W · 61 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Over | 23c | 1,250$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.65 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4cbb…c561backed Over | 25c | 1,016$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1104…39fabacked Over | 24c | 826.12$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.48 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 23c | 528.75$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.12 | 1,319 | 50.8%670 W · 649 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 21c | 469.15$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.21 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Under | 75c | 462.73$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.79 | 111 | 53.2%59 W · 52 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf715…bbf0backed Over | 24c | 342.98$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.32 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Under | 78c | 333.33$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.33 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 24c | 273.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.28 | 896 | 48.2%432 W · 464 L | +17.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…f218backed Under | 76c | 245.08$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.82 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 24c | 217.09$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.34 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc155…e36bbacked Over | 25c | 202$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.73 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 78c | 170.06$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.78 | 218 | 35.8%78 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9db…dd44backed Over | 24c | 170$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -4.0wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Under | 77c | 165$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.95 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +4.0wins | +0.22per pick | 55cpaid | +50%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 76c | 160.79$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.9 | 130 | 40%52 W · 78 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8e…0cc4backed Over | 24c | 154.17$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 56 | 12.5%7 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06c…6961backed Under | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02b6…8f5fbacked Under | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x252f…4f62backed Over | 24c | 125$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -8.4wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -63%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x23ea…1c3fbacked Under | 77c | 103.9$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -44%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 76c | 95.63$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 472 | 44.9%212 W · 260 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49b8…1417backed Over | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x631c…7bfebacked Over | 17c | 71.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +5.0wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0e72…54f0backed Under | 76c | 65.35$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa2…e287backed Under | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb329…2a8cbacked Over | 22c | 57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Under | 78c | 56.76$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Over | 24c | 55.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 172 | 49.4%85 W · 87 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 76c | 49.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 154 | 59.1%91 W · 63 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c93…0fb8backed Under | 77c | 49.32$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 75c | 42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 1,793 | 54.8%983 W · 810 L | +11.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Under | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -4.3wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Under | 76c | 22.89$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c87…7f4abacked Under | 75c | 19.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.20per pick | 61cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad57…b8d3backed Under | 75c | 19.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5985…a8cabacked Under | 75c | 18.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb17…32b2backed Under | 78c | 17.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.98 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc73b…c3e9backed Under | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 76c | 14.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lille OSC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Lille OSC vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Lille OSC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Lille OSC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Lille OSC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5)Lille OSC won
- Spread: Aston Villa FC (-2.5)Lille OSC won
- Spread: Lille OSC (-1.5)Aston Villa FC won
- Spread: Lille OSC (-2.5)Aston Villa FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.