Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x88cf9fa3600d3302ff6fae53363b93fb0b32901409112ddb83861d671439848b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,668
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,668 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 2c | 1,504$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 2c | 987.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8337…2827backed Yes | 4c | 670.09$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.07 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9caa…1a3fbacked Yes | 7c | 654.78$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.83 | 122 | 35.2%43 W · 79 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 23c | 456.57$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.58 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 17c | 369.43$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.49 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 355.97$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.71 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…5443backed Yes | 29c | 314.23$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.75 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 21c | 236.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.3 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf77b…42e9backed No | 77c | 230$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.02 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +5.8wins | +0.19per pick | 57cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked No | 76c | 220.66$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.4 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 15c | 202.38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.42 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 73c | 199.46$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.66 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94a7…16eebacked Yes | 27c | 187.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.85 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -41%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 19c | 165.72$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.74 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 17c | 158.04$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.98 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 13c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x022f…49cfbacked No | 65c | 106.16$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.42 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x720a…0a49backed No | 79c | 104.34$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.95 | 118 | 78.8%93 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 25c | 93$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 27c | 90$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2df0…a625backed No | 69c | 87.03$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.03 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 29c | 86.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…d88cbacked Yes | 27c | 81.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 23c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 31c | 75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 65c | 71.4$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.22 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 18c | 68.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 63c | 62.41$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.01 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 32c | 62.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…2d9dbacked Yes | 21c | 60.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 27c | 58.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2de…ff4fbacked No | 71c | 56.6$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed No | 68c | 54.9$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe211…c34fbacked Yes | 36c | 53.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5012…9a5cbacked No | 68c | 51.82$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.51 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 73c | 47.95$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0eb…a7d8backed No | 74c | 47.57$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 58 | 74.1%43 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 27c | 47.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6987…846bbacked Yes | 43c | 46.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfca1…c1bebacked Yes | 33c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55f5…3767backed Yes | 34c | 44.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 74c | 42.58$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 28c | 42.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 34c | 41.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d29…c502backed No | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 71cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fde…b480backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 78c | 38.8$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa019…7935backed No | 69c | 37.7$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 53 | 75.5%40 W · 13 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 34c | 35.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafb1…0329backed No | 74c | 32.77$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 81 | 60.5%49 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 76c | 31.21$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…b0a6backed No | 71c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b07…e4c5backed No | 72c | 23.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 72c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 17.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd78…be86backed No | 75c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 69°F or below on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 88°F or higher on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on March 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.