Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on March 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe3cab0cc493a17895978cb304486b23b0bc824ea7c3884ad7b9071f209d70225
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,082
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,082 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 13c | 995.24$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.33 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 356.31$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.39 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 23c | 337.67$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.44 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50ec…5dcdbacked Yes | 19c | 258$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7908…4f35backed Yes | 11c | 227.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 17c | 220.73$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.07 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd96b…7f20backed Yes | 15c | 216$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.42 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7d…260cbacked Yes | 15c | 207.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed Yes | 24c | 203.3$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.93 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 15c | 200.47$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.98 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 80c | 193.93$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.31 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 79c | 191.62$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.38 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed0f…b307backed Yes | 12c | 172.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 18c | 163.76$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 16c | 159.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 14c | 143$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked Yes | 19c | 142.17$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.87 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 12c | 141.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 79c | 132.01$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7396…b89cbacked No | 77c | 130.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.07 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 75c | 117.58$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.49 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 77c | 113.97$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.34 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 16c | 108.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 23c | 107$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa188…e84fbacked Yes | 19c | 106.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 22c | 101.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes | 14c | 100.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 196 | 17.9%35 W · 161 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 22c | 99.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 78c | 97.4$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26ef…9808backed No | 79c | 94.93$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 92 | 77.2%71 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 20c | 83.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…2b4abacked Yes | 13c | 81.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 149 | 15.4%23 W · 126 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 24c | 72.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed Yes | 14c | 71.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 74c | 67.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 17c | 59.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 73c | 54.69$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b24…6e4abacked Yes | 20c | 53.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c1…9615backed Yes | 19c | 52.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 72c | 48.01$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6987…846bbacked Yes | 33c | 45.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d6f…5e82backed Yes | 33c | 41.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d1c…f13cbacked No | 78c | 38.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 80c | 35.78$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 70c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 74c | 23.86$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 155 | 58.1%90 W · 65 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce9a…8ea6backed No | 75c | 18.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 188 | 78.2%147 W · 41 L | +19.4wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 78c | 13.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.05 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on March 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 69°F or below on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 88°F or higher on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on March 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.