Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf949a5f5a8e2db657bbd2e4026831e0e8a95ebaa02cab51d868f9967f0d2e46f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,340
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,340 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 36c | 358.72$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.51 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 60c | 351.2$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.82 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 18c | 330.98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.23 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 300.04$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.47 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36fa…50fdbacked No | 4c | 278$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 37c | 236.4$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.86 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 193.52$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.64 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed No | 47c | 175.93$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.06 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 66c | 151.33$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.38 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 14c | 145.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 34c | 130.03$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.76 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 12c | 116.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 37c | 115.32$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.31 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 53c | 114.39$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.33 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74b7…14e9backed Yes | 55c | 109.69$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.7 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa322…dd03backed Yes | 35c | 107.36$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.7 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 37c | 98.32$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.96 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 59c | 95$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.95 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff2…9070backed Yes | 48c | 82.81$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.81 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 66c | 81.31$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.59 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 66c | 77.81$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.69 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 60c | 76.76$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.87 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 40c | 75.02$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.02 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 45c | 74.4$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.17 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…9d98backed Yes | 68c | 73.55$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.55 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 69c | 72.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.34 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 37c | 72.14$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.79 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…5443backed Yes | 57c | 70$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.31 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca5…32bebacked Yes | 56c | 69.79$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.79 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a3…b156backed Yes | 44c | 67.66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.66 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5580…8029backed Yes | 61c | 65.57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.57 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f1…4107backed Yes | 39c | 65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.85 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.35per pick | 27cpaid | +98%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 65$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67b5…11ecbacked No | 17c | 64.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 37c | 64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.49 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 43c | 62.11$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.11 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x302c…108abacked Yes | 42c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 64c | 59.97$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.08 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 40c | 58.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x7f42…adbebacked Yes | 64c | 54.55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.55 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 68c | 53.1$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.95 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5012…9a5cbacked No | 51c | 51.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aae…d51dbacked No | 41c | 50.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +55%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b8…2d98backed No | 52c | 49.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf585…aae1backed No | 41c | 49.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64bd…82cfbacked No | 60c | 48.96$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.21 | 187 | 61%114 W · 73 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 30c | 47.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.56 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 36c | 47.26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.26 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 57c | 46.53$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed No | 54c | 45.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 61c | 45.95$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91f2…e2d7backed Yes | 50c | 45.76$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.01 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 57c | 45.38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3487…11f5backed Yes | 76c | 41$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 96 | 53.1%51 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 50c | 40.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.38 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fde…b480backed Yes | 32c | 39.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.19 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 59c | 38.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed No | 65c | 37.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6160…fdfcbacked No | 40c | 37.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +5.3wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa42b…92e0backed No | 58c | 35.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 40c | 34.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x913a…a3e7backed Yes | 64c | 33.05$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +6.6wins | +0.18per pick | 50cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…2aa5backed Yes | 62c | 32.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 161 | 57.1%92 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2042…643fbacked Yes | 35c | 31.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.78 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd082…b5e8backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…1e7bbacked Yes | 40c | 30.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.52 | 92 | 70.7%65 W · 27 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 35c | 30.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe768…10efbacked Yes | 66c | 30.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 113 | 55.8%63 W · 50 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x148f…2f09backed Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d6f…5e82backed No | 60c | 29.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed Yes | 40c | 29.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 69c | 28.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 38c | 28.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f9c…7e2fbacked No | 68c | 28.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefc8…4676backed Yes | 58c | 26.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b24…6e4abacked No | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 62c | 23.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 155 | 58.1%90 W · 65 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 69c | 23.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29ff…9552backed No | 50c | 22.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e87…5eb7backed No | 62c | 22.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0666…2efbbacked Yes | 59c | 21.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7658…e770backed No | 50c | 20.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 73c | 19.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked No | 68c | 17.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeae6…6dd3backed No | 70c | 14.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 69°F or below on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 88°F or higher on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on March 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.