Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on March 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x890021f33caf75be78d0c1e4bed68bc30b8cc5b515d077e167c3d44922bb8918
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,836
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,836 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 3c | 3,174$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.21 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 3c | 830.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 19c | 435.67$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.74 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 5c | 408.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed Yes | 29c | 339.81$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 7c | 299.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e75…7b2dbacked Yes | 5c | 283.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 264.55$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.92 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b39…22f7backed Yes | 10c | 249.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 63 | 19%12 W · 51 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 9c | 248.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 10c | 236.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 15c | 232.22$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.58 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 18c | 222.36$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.67 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes | 15c | 200$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.35 | 156 | 26.3%41 W · 115 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed5…72a6backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 16c | 199.96$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c38…4eb3backed Yes | 34c | 183.22$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 80c | 176.28$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.89 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 31c | 164.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.17 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 18c | 141.12$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 10c | 124.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 14c | 120.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 12c | 99.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43f2…09a5backed Yes | 32c | 94.71$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.74 | 81 | 24.7%20 W · 61 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7e…063fbacked Yes | 14c | 90.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 53 | 22.6%12 W · 41 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed No | 69c | 72.54$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.54 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 17c | 70$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d5…7b83backed Yes | 25c | 58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d02…54b8backed Yes | 30c | 56.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf927…10bcbacked No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 71cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 24c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaef5…5200backed Yes | 23c | 46.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 27c | 37.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12b2…74b8backed No | 72c | 34.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 89 | 68.5%61 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbe5…4d16backed No | 73c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…d474backed No | 73c | 13.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 166 | 39.2%65 W · 101 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on March 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 10°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 11°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 12°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C on March 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C or higher on March 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.