Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C on March 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x528f9e5e146d5969854b0c90d12827db83798b957acd54a8ee72da00f177ea8d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,411
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,411 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed No | 7c | 537.16$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.41 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 8c | 488.86$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.69 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 66c | 434.53$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.03 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 23c | 422.43$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.33 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff65…f1cdbacked No | 17c | 387.67$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.29 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 3c | 367.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d97…66f8backed Yes | 78c | 367.26$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.5 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 48c | 308.75$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.49 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac68…f1fcbacked Yes | 70c | 295.86$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.96 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 67c | 253.79$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.86 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 71c | 221.69$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.23 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 205.46$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.85 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 13c | 199.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 14c | 197.57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.13 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 13c | 170.21$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 44c | 135.26$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.26 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 48c | 129.99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.6 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes | 45c | 123.01$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.24 | 101 | 20.8%21 W · 80 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed No | 10c | 115.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 35c | 114.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.81 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 57c | 113.78$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.31 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 26c | 107.65$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3e…90f5backed No | 21c | 100.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…66f9backed Yes | 61c | 100.14$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.62 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f8a…a6aabacked Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8682…24e5backed Yes | 77c | 99.98$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6316…7488backed Yes | 61c | 96.01$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.66 | 153 | 34%52 W · 101 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71af…6b3dbacked Yes | 54c | 96.01$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.32 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 53c | 94.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.95 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 56c | 93$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.21 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 46c | 83.36$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.51 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2fb…1c67backed Yes | 78c | 82.26$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.16 | 98 | 77.6%76 W · 22 L | +16.3wins | +0.17per pick | 61cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc1be…6471backed Yes | 62c | 80.48$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.48 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c9…6872backed Yes | 79c | 79.23$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25d8…a71fbacked Yes | 46c | 78.44$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.41 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +77.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 53c | 75.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.05 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c38…4eb3backed Yes | 78c | 73.73$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 39c | 70.12$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.87 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 53c | 70$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 52c | 65.79$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 71c | 65$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 53c | 61.91$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.81 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 44c | 61.46$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.32 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 52c | 56.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7d…305ebacked No | 55c | 56.1$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.86 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d02…54b8backed Yes | 33c | 55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c5…f6f1backed Yes | 73c | 54.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x151b…ef82backed No | 32c | 51.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeda…b697backed Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 88 | 72.7%64 W · 24 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x805d…1f7abacked Yes | 79c | 48$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…c33abacked No | 49c | 46.82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 149 | 61.1%91 W · 58 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 30c | 46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb68c…35a8backed No | 50c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.32per pick | 47cpaid | -77.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c10…3f12backed Yes | 49c | 44.75$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc472…b96cbacked No | 65c | 44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | -12.2wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 43c | 43.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x762a…fddebacked Yes | 71c | 41.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.99 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 67c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe03a…439fbacked No | 72c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 189 | 10.6%20 W · 169 L | -87.5wins | -0.46per pick | 57cpaid | -84%equal weight | 5-0.41 edge/pick |
| 0x883f…0634backed Yes | 49c | 39.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.37 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc2…e280backed Yes | 58c | 34.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ecc…d023backed Yes | 64c | 34.18$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb9…58bebacked No | 53c | 31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74f6…6ba1backed Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa336…43f1backed Yes | 68c | 29.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 53c | 28.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x974c…7ba3backed Yes | 52c | 25.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.16per pick | 42cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xef28…b533backed Yes | 79c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked Yes | 77c | 20.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…63b0backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…8e32backed Yes | 76c | 18.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8267…f7b7backed No | 76c | 16.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 116 | 56.9%66 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2599…747ebacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 26 | 84.6%22 W · 4 L | +4.2wins | +0.16per pick | 68cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x37d3…4e40backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C on March 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 10°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 11°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 12°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C or higher on March 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.