Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 12°C on March 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd0bf14c67e9da4ec5e2209ab83f29f7b81767b432bbcff8053d2a39d794cdf00
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,162
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,162 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x867b…9877backed Yes | 0c | 18,440$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 5c | 499.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b39…22f7backed Yes | 22c | 449.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 63 | 19%12 W · 51 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes | 19c | 349.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.5 | 101 | 20.8%21 W · 80 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9271…19eabacked Yes | 60c | 336.03$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 290.49$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.08 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 10c | 286.58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.82 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac68…f1fcbacked Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 21c | 185.04$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.27 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3de5…00ccbacked No | 69c | 163.21$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.21 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 15c | 156.06$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 13c | 155.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 25c | 153.27$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.08 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 68c | 144$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.69 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04f3…0ffabacked Yes | 22c | 104.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…66f9backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdef7…2978backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 73 | 19.2%14 W · 59 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf927…10bcbacked No | 78c | 99.99$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 71cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 31c | 90.7$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf25c…98aabacked Yes | 24c | 82.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea9…7927backed No | 73c | 80.42$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.97 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 17c | 75.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1d02…54b8backed Yes | 26c | 62.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 30c | 59.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 29c | 50.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74f6…6ba1backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 29c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 76c | 46.42$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2af7…570dbacked Yes | 32c | 42.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 72c | 41.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 74c | 38.48$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…67e7backed Yes | 28c | 36.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +91.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 36.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.75 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed No | 40c | 36.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.69 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x71b5…d067backed Yes | 33c | 33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed No | 50c | 29.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 70c | 28.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe164…acfebacked No | 76c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 80 | 76.3%61 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 72c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 71c | 23.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0021…7c05backed No | 74c | 21.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…d474backed No | 76c | 18.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 166 | 39.2%65 W · 101 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bab…72ddbacked No | 71c | 14.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x963b…273dbacked No | 74c | 13.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.54 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 76cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 12°C on March 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 10°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 11°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C on March 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C or higher on March 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.