AI · resolved market
Will Apple acquire Perplexity in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8926077a613a27428b3a7b61ea1a2ac7341f94183a4cc4949f6bbbf1f4c62665
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,782
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,033
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,782 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf472…a262backed Yes | 33c | 1,415$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.73 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x283b…3a9bbacked No | 71c | 786.63$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.34 | 51 | 13.7%7 W · 44 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -65%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed No | 74c | 611.49$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.22 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22c7…ca3ebacked Yes | 12c | 504.61$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01f4…d22dbacked Yes | 24c | 168.88$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…b2e3backed No | 70c | 160.61$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +85%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf31…a155backed Yes | 19c | 123.28$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.90per pick | 10cpaid | +900%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b46…625fbacked Yes | 33c | 74.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes | 15c | 67.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x853b…eff5backed Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0748…ba12backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +34%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6183…3834backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd46…58a6backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe322…b4e7backed No | 63c | 31.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd7…ac7dbacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…f086backed No | 77c | 29.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 73c | 29.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…7c47backed No | 62c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +73.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 67c | 19.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 288 | 28.5%82 W · 206 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3378…f722backed No | 74c | 19.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 73c | 15.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.09 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.