Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 42-43°F on March 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8934d42f07c856be4bbee610bbe1e1ae63b25cdaf629059247f923783dcfe7ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,467
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,467 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 20c | 353.48$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.01 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 22c | 300.35$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.06 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 22c | 256.23$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.56 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92f3…c02abacked No | 78c | 248.27$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.51 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 27c | 220.44$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.62 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…1994backed No | 78c | 210$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.75 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 34c | 204.41$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.76 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 75c | 202.61$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.41 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 39c | 196.4$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.71 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 164.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 32c | 161.23$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.84 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 21c | 154.6$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.03 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 73c | 145.12$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.64 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 32c | 136.25$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.69 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 65c | 131.09$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.16 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 33c | 130$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.57 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 17c | 129.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…7057backed No | 70c | 118.73$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.49 | 192 | 59.9%115 W · 77 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x745c…970fbacked Yes | 40c | 112.11$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 41cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa29d…747bbacked Yes | 44c | 111.96$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.26 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +208%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed Yes | 28c | 110$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba3a…e041backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.56 | 99 | 27.3%27 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30c8…446cbacked Yes | 29c | 96.56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 42c | 93.12$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.35 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 70c | 86.48$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.15 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 18c | 85.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 85$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x534a…023abacked No | 60c | 84.03$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.61 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c2…d167backed Yes | 43c | 76$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.56 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…85d4backed No | 66c | 75.3$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e11…5bbbbacked No | 71c | 70.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed No | 56c | 66.95$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.46 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 70c | 64.28$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.49 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 25c | 61.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 17c | 61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes | 24c | 60.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 196 | 17.9%35 W · 161 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7aea…2ab8backed No | 63c | 58.5$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.63 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 35c | 53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 39c | 50.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…2fadbacked No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 120 | 68.3%82 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 69c | 49.8$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbe…139ebacked No | 77c | 48$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb94e…e6e5backed No | 68c | 44.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…d88cbacked Yes | 34c | 43.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 36c | 42.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f9…a005backed Yes | 36c | 41.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1af…b4a9backed Yes | 38c | 41.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed No | 79c | 40.03$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc472…b96cbacked No | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | -12.2wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x91ef…0388backed Yes | 28c | 39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…522abacked No | 54c | 36.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 102 | 37.3%38 W · 64 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f7…fd31backed No | 66c | 35.31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.01 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a39…acc7backed No | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc584…0611backed Yes | 44c | 32.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 62c | 31.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.01 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x256a…277cbacked Yes | 32c | 31.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.28per pick | 62cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed No | 66c | 30.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc02…504dbacked No | 67c | 29.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 63 | 65.1%41 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x151b…ef82backed No | 65c | 29.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 54c | 27.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2599…747ebacked No | 76c | 26.93$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 26 | 84.6%22 W · 4 L | +4.2wins | +0.16per pick | 68cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1475…ed52backed No | 70c | 25.72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 71c | 23.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d6…e222backed No | 73c | 20.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 66cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 71c | 20.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f04…f573backed No | 62c | 20.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd05…0e6ebacked No | 65c | 19.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 77 | 67.5%52 W · 25 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 68c | 19.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 63c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 163 | 66.3%108 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 69c | 14.43$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 78c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.82 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 42-43°F on March 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 35°F or below on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 54°F or higher on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 36-37°F on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 38-39°F on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 40-41°F on March 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 44-45°F on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 46-47°F on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on March 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.