Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 40-41°F on March 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x71a9df6d911a49a51faab7f3c168af2987ee8931f22bb981be2b37d2c4cfbf83
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,941
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,941 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 64c | 926.72$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.38 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 11c | 496.01$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.61 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 9c | 285.51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ba…e6a1backed Yes | 71c | 267.75$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 17c | 266.41$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.68 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 62c | 265.85$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.26 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbe…139ebacked No | 23c | 260.32$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.75 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 18c | 259.25$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.24 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 73c | 252.96$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.66 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 12c | 250.29$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.01 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 30c | 249.31$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.03 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 72c | 237.28$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.99 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 20c | 228.59$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.83 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 41c | 216.7$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.98 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 28c | 196.76$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.58 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 172.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.16 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…a709backed Yes | 67c | 158$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.56 | 92 | 60.9%56 W · 36 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…1994backed No | 67c | 152.01$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.23 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ba…d397backed No | 42c | 141.03$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.18 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 46cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 29c | 140.54$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 40c | 132.27$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.36 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 26c | 130$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.69 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 75c | 126.5$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.04 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 29c | 125$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.75 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c02…ba96backed No | 27c | 124.6$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.96 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 72c | 117.22$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.41 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 37c | 106.49$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.05 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xba3a…e041backed Yes | 55c | 100.22$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.03 | 99 | 27.3%27 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Yes | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 118 | 33.1%39 W · 79 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.55 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed No | 28c | 95.66$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.98 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5eed…d8ffbacked No | 30c | 91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 66c | 90.44$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.55 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74b7…14e9backed Yes | 60c | 90$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.2 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 70c | 85.78$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.91 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes | 34c | 78.07$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.53 | 156 | 26.3%41 W · 115 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7aea…2ab8backed No | 35c | 75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.07 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 28c | 71.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x302c…108abacked Yes | 35c | 71.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.6 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5194…1dcabacked No | 40c | 70$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 33 | 6.1%2 W · 31 L | -4.3wins | -0.13per pick | 19cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2018…640abacked Yes | 29c | 69.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.21 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…9d98backed Yes | 73c | 68.4$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 79c | 66.82$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.56 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 30c | 66.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.76 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 23c | 63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.72 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e11…5bbbbacked No | 80c | 62.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 66c | 60.89$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.89 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f7…fd31backed No | 39c | 59.28$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2de…ff4fbacked No | 71c | 55.46$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.11 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 53$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.69 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 64c | 52.34$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.39 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200e…7d37backed No | 47c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 67 | 67.2%45 W · 22 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 33c | 48.81$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.84 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c2…d167backed Yes | 33c | 47.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.13 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc584…0611backed Yes | 26c | 46.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75bc…881fbacked Yes | 28c | 46.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1af…b4a9backed Yes | 29c | 45.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.14 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f9…a005backed Yes | 33c | 45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.15 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…62dfbacked Yes | 25c | 41.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.99 | 251 | 19.9%50 W · 201 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 37c | 41.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.04 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd417…9438backed Yes | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 46c | 37.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ede…6395backed Yes | 40c | 37.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +147.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 66c | 34.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x060c…9352backed Yes | 59c | 33.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 91 | 33%30 W · 61 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b9…3377backed No | 73c | 32.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 140 | 71.4%100 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf876…8975backed No | 73c | 31.73$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6160…fdfcbacked No | 38c | 31.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +5.3wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa9…a6c9backed Yes | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…9908backed No | 52c | 28.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 51c | 28.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75d5…1374backed No | 62c | 28.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc02…504dbacked No | 73c | 27.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 63 | 65.1%41 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…7057backed No | 71c | 26.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 192 | 59.9%115 W · 77 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 63c | 23.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 73c | 22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…0f61backed Yes | 80c | 21.14$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 78c | 20.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb830…2ff3backed Yes | 61c | 19.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 77c | 19.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb2…14d6backed No | 73c | 19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 77 | 54.5%42 W · 35 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 66cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 78c | 18.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d6…e222backed No | 76c | 17.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 66cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Yes | 74c | 16.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe164…acfebacked No | 72c | 15.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 80 | 76.3%61 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1475…ed52backed No | 76c | 14.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 76c | 13.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 40-41°F on March 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 35°F or below on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 54°F or higher on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 36-37°F on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 38-39°F on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 42-43°F on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 44-45°F on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 46-47°F on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on March 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.