Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Kaiserslautern win on 2025-12-06?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8934f5a202b0e0a1d1d986aa84afdc1c9bc7753f620d22145ea1b863d74c8d89
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,448
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $84,670
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,448 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 48c | 30,000$14,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,749.99 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed No | 53c | 14,989$7,944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,944.04 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed No | 52c | 12,099$6,292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,291.62 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80cf…427dbacked Yes | 47c | 10,000$4,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,300 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 53c | 9,917$5,247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,246.79 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 32c | 2,025$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$651.61 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed Yes | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,060 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Yes | 47c | 1,064$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.83 | 227 | 47.1%107 W · 120 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74e1…e6a2backed No | 57c | 1,000$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 29c | 999.99$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 53c | 916.86$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.9 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed No | 46c | 887$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.11 | 158 | 47.5%75 W · 83 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x891d…dd26backed No | 55c | 770.44$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.15 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02fb…0a53backed Yes | 70c | 496.98$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.98 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5476…9649backed Yes | 72c | 427.92$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Yes | 44c | 420$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.83 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed No | 17c | 399.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 158 | 29.1%46 W · 112 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aea…ec91backed No | 54c | 399.8$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.89 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3944…6470backed Yes | 46c | 310$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.4 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 5c | 266.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Yes | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39ea…3d0ebacked Yes | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +70%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed No | 53c | 190.26$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.02 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde22…292abacked Yes | 71c | 179.92$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.18 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf84…a7b5backed Yes | 51c | 154.16$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.16 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b3b…05cfbacked Yes | 71c | 142.66$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.37 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +60%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fe…cd9abacked No | 51c | 134$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4c…8dbcbacked Yes | 71c | 112.68$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02ba…2652backed No | 56c | 110$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13f9…3ab4backed Yes | 50c | 100.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.52 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed No | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6b…075fbacked Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x992e…93c0backed Yes | 54c | 94.74$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48e2…35c7backed Yes | 71c | 91.55$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Yes | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…4ffbbacked No | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…1db8backed No | 58c | 68.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb875…68a8backed Yes | 76c | 67.44$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x44cd…9c55backed No | 54c | 64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58e4…73f9backed Yes | 47c | 63.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…7eedbacked Yes | 52c | 62.08$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.08 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 38c | 61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…5bd8backed No | 24c | 58.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x548f…43b6backed Yes | 72c | 55.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38c2…ab51backed Yes | 51c | 52.72$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9270…7c9ebacked No | 50c | 47.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 98 | 56.1%55 W · 43 L | -5.6wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 53c | 42.08$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed No | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 77 | 59.7%46 W · 31 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked No | 53c | 38.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd46a…e9dbbacked Yes | 47c | 34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffac…d469backed Yes | 49c | 30.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -6.4wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…9652backed No | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7e…a0e8backed Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f40…6dc6backed Yes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +3.4wins | +0.31per pick | 60cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e3…6591backed Yes | 72c | 26.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadd2…350cbacked No | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdd…7245backed No | 54c | 24.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…947dbacked Yes | 53c | 18.87$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 44cpaid | +129.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Kaiserslautern win on 2025-12-06?this page
- Will 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. SG Dynamo Dresden end in a draw?No won
- Will SG Dynamo Dresden win on 2025-12-06?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.