Tennis · resolved market
Tiafoe vs. Sinner: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8961a1a51c447540fda7fa79ff13212807d13e22b9ec6b9deb6b1eb948f80053
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,310
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,503
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,310 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Over | 28c | 1,400$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.32 | 572 | 49.5%283 W · 289 L | -32.8wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7c…164dbacked Under | 72c | 1,202$865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.57 | 193 | 38.9%75 W · 118 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +109.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6c…7e66backed Under | 75c | 1,195$896 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.63 | 1,193 | 48.9%583 W · 610 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Over | 25c | 999$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.75 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 74c | 812.88$601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.39 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d0…a1c5backed Over | 26c | 576.89$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1,566 | 40%627 W · 939 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e1…ecdbbacked Over | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 489 | 35.8%175 W · 314 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 74c | 134$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Under | 72c | 123.96$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.71 | 2,418 | 51.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L | +10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 25c | 78.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 287 | 24.4%70 W · 217 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x931f…2e44backed Over | 25c | 78.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Under | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 316 | 50%158 W · 158 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 25c | 45.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked Under | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 474 | 53.2%252 W · 222 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tiafoe vs. Sinner: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5this page
- Frances Tiafoe vs. Jannik Sinner: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Miami Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Jannik SinnerJannik Sinner won
- Set 1 Winner: Tiafoe vs SinnerSinner won
- Set Handicap: Sinner (-1.5) vs Tiafoe (+1.5)Sinner won
- Tiafoe vs. Sinner: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Tiafoe vs. Sinner: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Tiafoe vs. Sinner: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.