Tennis · resolved market

Miami Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Jannik Sinner

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c22fd40b5685cfd1cadc2b7b999650d6a67be0071ae9d6f930f15f0f020cd16

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Jannik Sinnerof Frances Tiafoe, Jannik Sinner
Resolved: Mar 26, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $633,414
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $724,847

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $633,414 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tennis
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x5c3a…020bbacked Frances Tiafoe	6c	39,080$2,345 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,344.78	30	46.7%14 W · 16 L	+1.4wins	+0.05per pick	42cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed Frances Tiafoe	4c	28,084$1,208 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,208.33	1,090	35.9%391 W · 699 L	+16.2wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf92a…99acbacked Frances Tiafoe	6c	22,502$1,350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,350.12	49	30.6%15 W · 34 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1b3…0329backed Frances Tiafoe	5c	20,000$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$999.99	104	40.4%42 W · 62 L	+6.3wins	+0.06per pick	34cpaid	+14%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x10ff…5088backed Frances Tiafoe	1c	19,848$286 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$285.95	661	39.3%260 W · 401 L	-5.2wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5919…95acbacked Frances Tiafoe	7c	19,618$1,369 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,368.62	41	24.4%10 W · 31 L	-5.0wins	-0.12per pick	37cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Frances Tiafoe	7c	18,593$1,251 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,250.87	4,934	41.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L	-77.0wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Frances Tiafoe	2c	18,480$277 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$277.39	8,217	45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L	+166.6wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Frances Tiafoe	6c	14,262$880 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$879.83	86	50%43 W · 43 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68af…ca81backed Frances Tiafoe	2c	11,604$288 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$288.01	217	20.3%44 W · 173 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83e8…7b89backed Frances Tiafoe	6c	10,000$590 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$590.19	15	40%6 W · 9 L	+0.7wins	+0.04per pick	36cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5d4…8b32backed Frances Tiafoe	2c	9,774$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$158.3	1,206	8%96 W · 1,110 L	+17.2wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	+80.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa10e…4ea1backed Frances Tiafoe	7c	9,122$639 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$638.52	83	31.3%26 W · 57 L	-4.4wins	-0.05per pick	37cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9a8c…b52cbacked Frances Tiafoe	6c	8,333$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	67	37.3%25 W · 42 L	-3.3wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x44f4…1885backed Frances Tiafoe	7c	6,825$478 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$477.74	36	38.9%14 W · 22 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-22.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Frances Tiafoe	6c	5,656$337 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$337.24	87	21.8%19 W · 68 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xafe6…8192backed Frances Tiafoe	7c	5,000$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350	248	40.7%101 W · 147 L	+11.6wins	+0.05per pick	36cpaid	+19.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Frances Tiafoe	2c	4,747$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.51	1,678	50.8%852 W · 826 L	+30.5wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf945…7eb1backed Frances Tiafoe	4c	3,336$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140.18	43	9.3%4 W · 39 L	-3.5wins	-0.08per pick	17cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb1a0…c18cbacked Frances Tiafoe	1c	3,331$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.86	120	33.3%40 W · 80 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Frances Tiafoe	7c	2,986$209 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$209.01	2,746	30.8%846 W · 1,900 L	-67.1wins	-0.02per pick	33cpaid	-36.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfc7…7f02backed Frances Tiafoe	6c	2,700$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152	48	52.1%25 W · 23 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8bd…478fbacked Frances Tiafoe	8c	2,500$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	544	50.6%275 W · 269 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Frances Tiafoe	3c	2,498$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.02	301	31.9%96 W · 205 L	-9.5wins	-0.03per pick	35cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d22…ec35backed Frances Tiafoe	6c	2,281$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.86	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-1.1wins	-0.19per pick	35cpaid	-79.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Frances Tiafoe	3c	2,227$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.82	11,435	43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L	+17.8wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2c89…526abacked Frances Tiafoe	7c	2,143$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	246	38.2%94 W · 152 L	+7.4wins	+0.03per pick	35cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1fc8…f45bbacked Frances Tiafoe	6c	2,083$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125	283	22.3%63 W · 220 L	-13.3wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x45fb…f9c0backed Frances Tiafoe	2c	2,072$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.91	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x25d8…a71fbacked Frances Tiafoe	6c	2,000$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	308	57.1%176 W · 132 L	-5.3wins	-0.02per pick	59cpaid	-8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82de…1337backed Frances Tiafoe	2c	1,894$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.89	416	58.7%244 W · 172 L	+22.3wins	+0.05per pick	53cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2755…fef0backed Frances Tiafoe	3c	1,763$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	226	34.5%78 W · 148 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	36cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98a7…b766backed Frances Tiafoe	5c	1,740$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.8	609	43.3%264 W · 345 L	-24.4wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-18.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Frances Tiafoe	7c	1,501$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.07	91	34.1%31 W · 60 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	32cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8374…4015backed Frances Tiafoe	7c	1,429$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	73	46.6%34 W · 39 L	+4.8wins	+0.07per pick	40cpaid	+9.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc679…e427backed Frances Tiafoe	7c	1,429$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	31	32.3%10 W · 21 L	-1.4wins	-0.05per pick	37cpaid	-32.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c86…15c0backed Frances Tiafoe	5c	1,114$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	78	41%32 W · 46 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1d9…5955backed Frances Tiafoe	7c	1,099$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	17	52.9%9 W · 8 L	+1.9wins	+0.11per pick	42cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed Frances Tiafoe	5c	1,069$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.45	242	28.5%69 W · 173 L	+4.1wins	+0.02per pick	27cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Frances Tiafoe	2c	1,061$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1,130	27.9%315 W · 815 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x444a…00bebacked Frances Tiafoe	7c	1,000$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	88	31.8%28 W · 60 L	-8.3wins	-0.09per pick	41cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x07a8…3c32backed Frances Tiafoe	5c	1,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.9wins	-0.16per pick	49cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x96cb…75cbbacked Frances Tiafoe	7c	958.81$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.23	114	26.3%30 W · 84 L	-4.3wins	-0.04per pick	30cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbb5…2b6abacked Frances Tiafoe	4c	938.44$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	287	24.4%70 W · 217 L	-6.0wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	-22%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Frances Tiafoe	4c	919.68$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.17	1,265	29.2%370 W · 895 L	-13.3wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb315…d6c9backed Frances Tiafoe	6c	840$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.4	153	24.8%38 W · 115 L	-7.8wins	-0.05per pick	30cpaid	-21%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf294…7967backed Frances Tiafoe	4c	815.61$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.62	123	22%27 W · 96 L	+4.3wins	+0.04per pick	18cpaid	+42.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a89…bb33backed Frances Tiafoe	7c	799.43$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.96	49	26.5%13 W · 36 L	-5.2wins	-0.11per pick	37cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x26fb…67b8backed Frances Tiafoe	2c	775.35$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.23	651	57.1%372 W · 279 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	58cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x11ab…7ad1backed Frances Tiafoe	6c	733.33$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	157	34.4%54 W · 103 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	36cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Frances Tiafoe	5c	699.99$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.6	57	5.3%3 W · 54 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-33.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c8d…b575backed Frances Tiafoe	6c	692.83$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.57	48	20.8%10 W · 38 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-21%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe649…4e37backed Frances Tiafoe	7c	673$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.11	1,414	41.1%581 W · 833 L	-21.3wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b47…d814backed Frances Tiafoe	2c	647.96$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.43	278	36.7%102 W · 176 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb4d0…a1c5backed Frances Tiafoe	6c	500$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	1,566	40%627 W · 939 L	-32.0wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee28…8266backed Frances Tiafoe	3c	500$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	104	43.3%45 W · 59 L	+11.5wins	+0.11per pick	32cpaid	+12%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9f3f…64a2backed Frances Tiafoe	6c	500$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf77c…61cabacked Frances Tiafoe	4c	500$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	118	46.6%55 W · 63 L	-8.8wins	-0.07per pick	54cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6e75…50d7backed Frances Tiafoe	8c	500$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	67	49.3%33 W · 34 L	+3.6wins	+0.05per pick	44cpaid	+19.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc83…215cbacked Frances Tiafoe	6c	476.19$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	53	62.3%33 W · 20 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	62cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x67e6…86edbacked Frances Tiafoe	5c	429$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.45	237	50.6%120 W · 117 L	+4.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e0b…d6c6backed Frances Tiafoe	5c	423.38$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.44	14	50%7 W · 7 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ac9…cf1abacked Frances Tiafoe	6c	416.67$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	402	64.4%259 W · 143 L	+12.8wins	+0.03per pick	61cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe44b…6e0abacked Frances Tiafoe	5c	400$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	220	39.1%86 W · 134 L	-5.7wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1430…a753backed Frances Tiafoe	6c	400$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	46	32.6%15 W · 31 L	+3.3wins	+0.07per pick	25cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x42b4…753ebacked Frances Tiafoe	5c	400$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e0d…5d0cbacked Frances Tiafoe	7c	342.86$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	22	13.6%3 W · 19 L	-1.5wins	-0.07per pick	20cpaid	-69.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbde3…8e1dbacked Frances Tiafoe	6c	333.33$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+0.4wins	+0.06per pick	51cpaid	+9.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd42…c4aebacked Frances Tiafoe	6c	333.33$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	53	39.6%21 W · 32 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x94bb…77eebacked Frances Tiafoe	7c	314.29$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	819	33.1%271 W · 548 L	-30.1wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Frances Tiafoe	5c	300$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	459	9.6%44 W · 415 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4fab…708bbacked Frances Tiafoe	7c	264.57$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.52	1,276	30.4%388 W · 888 L	-11.5wins	-0.01per pick	31cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50f6…b8c6backed Frances Tiafoe	8c	250$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	133	38.3%51 W · 82 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x64e8…7819backed Frances Tiafoe	5c	245.4$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.22	1,882	35.5%669 W · 1,213 L	+26.8wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3513…b52fbacked Frances Tiafoe	6c	231.45$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.89	14	0%0 W · 14 L	-0.8wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4c9…9ee4backed Frances Tiafoe	6c	222$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.32	357	30.5%109 W · 248 L	-11.4wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb254…c972backed Frances Tiafoe	5c	200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x355a…98a6backed Frances Tiafoe	5c	200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	188	39.9%75 W · 113 L	-5.9wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c76…477abacked Frances Tiafoe	5c	200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	177	41.8%74 W · 103 L	-7.0wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd07…8d16backed Frances Tiafoe	5c	200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	63	54%34 W · 29 L	-2.9wins	-0.05per pick	59cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x64ad…8f39backed Frances Tiafoe	6c	198.67$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.92	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7dca…72a5backed Frances Tiafoe	10c	196.42$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	208	47.1%98 W · 110 L	-3.6wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Miami Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Jannik Sinnerthis page
Frances Tiafoe vs. Jannik Sinner: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
Set 1 Winner: Tiafoe vs SinnerSinner won
Set Handicap: Sinner (-1.5) vs Tiafoe (+1.5)Sinner won
Tiafoe vs. Sinner: Match O/U 21.5Under won
Tiafoe vs. Sinner: Match O/U 22.5Under won
Tiafoe vs. Sinner: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
Tiafoe vs. Sinner: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Under won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Miami Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Jannik Sinner

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event