Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Sinner (-1.5) vs Tiafoe (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x17b3851c13b7f7bfd516879ae30d97b77bb55b86238c215d1ad36fd04992108b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sinnerof Sinner, Tiafoe
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $74,343
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $87,334
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $74,343 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa1b3…0329backed Tiafoe | 13c | 15,260$1,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,999.4 | 104 | 40.4%42 W · 62 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Tiafoe | 6c | 12,665$761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760.5 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Tiafoe | 0c | 3,702$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Tiafoe | 6c | 3,125$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.5 | 1,678 | 50.8%852 W · 826 L | +30.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59f4…c1f1backed Tiafoe | 21c | 1,625$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.2 | 182 | 37.9%69 W · 113 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d0…d9e8backed Tiafoe | 20c | 1,616$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.17 | 154 | 47.4%73 W · 81 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf294…7967backed Tiafoe | 18c | 1,470$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.6 | 123 | 22%27 W · 96 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13ce…35f0backed Sinner | 80c | 1,326$1,061 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.24 | 79 | 81%64 W · 15 L | +7.9wins | +0.10per pick | 71cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Tiafoe | 6c | 1,223$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.41 | 1,018 | 46.8%476 W · 542 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Tiafoe | 17c | 1,217$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.17 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2488…ff0ebacked Tiafoe | 6c | 1,094$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.65 | 486 | 50.6%246 W · 240 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bd…6cecbacked Tiafoe | 6c | 1,034$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.89 | 232 | 48.3%112 W · 120 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7963…78a1backed Tiafoe | 10c | 887.64$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.76 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Sinner | 78c | 858.46$673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.13 | 7,753 | 47.8%3,703 W · 4,050 L | +39.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d0…a1c5backed Tiafoe | 19c | 842.11$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 1,579 | 39.8%629 W · 950 L | -34.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Tiafoe | 21c | 601$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.24 | 91 | 34.1%31 W · 60 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a88…b859backed Sinner | 79c | 295.04$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.05 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +527.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…f45bbacked Tiafoe | 21c | 285.71$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 283 | 22.3%63 W · 220 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa427…f87fbacked Sinner | 80c | 212.19$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.44 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x759c…05e2backed Tiafoe | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 196 | 49%96 W · 100 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x57db…6186backed Tiafoe | 6c | 186.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Tiafoe | 16c | 148.81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 4,082 | 39.7%1,622 W · 2,460 L | +93.1wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ea…4847backed Tiafoe | 20c | 142.3$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Tiafoe | 19c | 118.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Sinner | 79c | 110.8$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.82 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Tiafoe | 22c | 81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 1,414 | 41.1%581 W · 833 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x931f…2e44backed Tiafoe | 22c | 79.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dca…72a5backed Tiafoe | 20c | 73.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 208 | 47.1%98 W · 110 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb539…fff8backed Tiafoe | 18c | 61.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Sinner | 78c | 56.34$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 7,183 | 49.7%3,568 W · 3,615 L | +112.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c6…9508backed Tiafoe | 22c | 45.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07d9…9397backed Sinner | 80c | 41.25$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0599…3c6abacked Sinner | 80c | 30.14$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 588 | 59%347 W · 241 L | -9.2wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Sinner (-1.5) vs Tiafoe (+1.5)this page
- Frances Tiafoe vs. Jannik Sinner: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Miami Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Jannik SinnerJannik Sinner won
- Set 1 Winner: Tiafoe vs SinnerSinner won
- Tiafoe vs. Sinner: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Tiafoe vs. Sinner: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Tiafoe vs. Sinner: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Tiafoe vs. Sinner: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.