Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 7°C on April 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x896f952b8f5bb4c90e58d80ba6cf8fab6c5a7b40bedd66ec81c524723e0381bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,899
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,549
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,899 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 1c | 6,615$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.3 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…e889backed Yes | 39c | 1,005$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$617.6 | 165 | 29.1%48 W · 117 L | +12.9wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 74c | 800.57$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.5 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd68…988dbacked No | 61c | 541.01$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40e8…9a56backed No | 5c | 519.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 11c | 409.94$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.57 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 57c | 397.38$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.5 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed No | 55c | 319.56$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.2 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 31c | 243.74$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.53 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xaa17…aa48backed Yes | 36c | 203.63$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.57 | 122 | 26.2%32 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +133.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 57c | 175.48$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.89 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3141…f16abacked No | 66c | 174.94$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.29 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 8c | 170.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.72 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4afa…b3ccbacked Yes | 17c | 168.13$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.46 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 149.12$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.74 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed No | 80c | 144.45$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.41 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc931…7d46backed No | 68c | 139.54$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.31 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2002…996bbacked Yes | 34c | 136.41$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.08 | 65 | 78.5%51 W · 14 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 68cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 12c | 130.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.27 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed Yes | 16c | 123.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.68 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 10c | 122.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.68 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5201…34c3backed Yes | 16c | 121.94$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.59 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 23c | 117.51$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.45 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 18c | 110.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.14 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked No | 68c | 101.73$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.13 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e31…4716backed Yes | 10c | 100.12$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.77 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.58per pick | 22cpaid | +334.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 10c | 99.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.72 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 11c | 98.35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.9 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d86…9671backed Yes | 41c | 98.24$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.19 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 60c | 92.83$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.28 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed Yes | 15c | 91.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.33 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 16c | 89.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.62 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 22c | 89.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.74 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 67c | 84.28$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.81 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 74c | 69.94$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.46 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8b…4639backed Yes | 35c | 69.63$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.56 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 37c | 66.58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.24 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed Yes | 25c | 63.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.81 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…44ecbacked No | 40c | 62.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 20c | 62.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.45 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaea…95a9backed Yes | 25c | 60.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.44 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 24c | 58.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.46 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8a…edf9backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -8.0wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa8…fd4ebacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.8 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 39c | 49.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.3 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3487…11f5backed Yes | 22c | 48.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.57 | 96 | 53.1%51 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5112…fb73backed Yes | 27c | 38.55$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…0cc2backed No | 70c | 36.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 229 | 45.4%104 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed No | 76c | 34.52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c8d…84afbacked Yes | 43c | 32.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.83 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff7…931dbacked Yes | 35c | 30.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.83 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9b…994dbacked Yes | 43c | 30.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.27 | 166 | 34.9%58 W · 108 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.85 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x71ba…af7bbacked No | 56c | 25.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54b3…f0bebacked No | 69c | 20.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 82 | 70.7%58 W · 24 L | +7.0wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No | 61c | 18.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 7°C on April 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C or higher on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C or below on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C on April 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.