Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C on April 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd1f3add2c069d5e8d685415e93b404e64b7d83f3ab15f7de0d22f387df093ae0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $186,857
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $147,832
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $186,857 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb846…034dbacked Yes | 1c | 32,932$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fa…047dbacked Yes | 0c | 31,152$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.15 | 94 | 28.7%27 W · 67 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 0c | 28,609$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.61 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4594…b446backed Yes | 1c | 15,296$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53ea…a65fbacked Yes | 0c | 12,036$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.17 | 114 | 23.7%27 W · 87 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e31…4716backed Yes | 0c | 4,515$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.58per pick | 22cpaid | +334.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 1c | 2,927$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x072f…86b1backed Yes | 15c | 2,063$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.09 | 111 | 51.4%57 W · 54 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked Yes | 3c | 1,191$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.69 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 1c | 1,122$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 4c | 1,074$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.29 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff5…50eabacked Yes | 1c | 900$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 2c | 888.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 3c | 714.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 3c | 441.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 3c | 400.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed Yes | 4c | 355.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5201…34c3backed Yes | 7c | 348.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 5c | 346.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed Yes | 7c | 331.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc967…91d5backed Yes | 7c | 272.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 79 | 13.9%11 W · 68 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0321…19fabacked Yes | 10c | 267.3$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.32 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 10c | 191.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa8…fd4ebacked Yes | 9c | 170.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes | 10c | 146.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff7…931dbacked Yes | 9c | 133.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e43…2e9cbacked Yes | 12c | 103.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf00e…11a6backed Yes | 13c | 86.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 16c | 82.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Yes | 13c | 80.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe5…33a4backed Yes | 18c | 56.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked No | 79c | 18.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 209 | 28.7%60 W · 149 L | -45.3wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C on April 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C or higher on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C or below on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 7°C on April 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C on April 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.