Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C on April 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x62a487efa5e90d8e9c10afc072bc631db234a6bae4fb48756e374e5235854f92
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,244
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,515
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,244 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 14c | 1,486$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.95 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 70c | 443.37$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.91 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 26c | 363.43$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.54 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 9c | 267.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd1…d384backed No | 75c | 205.93$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.76 | 148 | 6.8%10 W · 138 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 18c | 199.51$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.01 | 99 | 19.2%19 W · 80 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 17c | 192.28$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.42 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc348…0b7ebacked Yes | 19c | 174.62$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.31 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -3.8wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ede…9e87backed Yes | 25c | 166.53$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.02 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 18c | 156.69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9e84…659dbacked No | 66c | 127.3$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.25 | 34 | 73.5%25 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a41…2562backed Yes | 23c | 122.83$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 24c | 118.04$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.73 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 17c | 112.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 69c | 110.14$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.09 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 13c | 105.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 18c | 95.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1746…41eebacked Yes | 19c | 94.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x178b…0c67backed Yes | 18c | 93.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 75c | 92.01$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.94 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 19c | 87.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4afa…b3ccbacked Yes | 21c | 80.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 16c | 72.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 17c | 71.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de4…9e28backed Yes | 21c | 54.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb897…7007backed Yes | 30c | 51.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54b3…f0bebacked No | 71c | 50.51$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 82 | 70.7%58 W · 24 L | +7.0wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e08…59d2backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea08…6191backed Yes | 21c | 49.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3487…11f5backed Yes | 24c | 47.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 96 | 53.1%51 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0032…e886backed Yes | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a07…923fbacked No | 72c | 41.61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.68 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8b…4639backed Yes | 32c | 40.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe4…d1c0backed No | 76c | 38.32$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 77c | 36.98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd416…d364backed No | 78c | 34.74$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 63c | 31.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…0736backed No | 80c | 31.41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 37c | 27.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 67c | 26.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe45…fd22backed No | 78c | 25.02$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9743…d3a4backed No | 76c | 24.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No | 65c | 24.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5201…34c3backed No | 78c | 19.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e43…2e9cbacked No | 80c | 14.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.01 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C on April 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C or higher on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C or below on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 7°C on April 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C on April 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.