Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C on April 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa41bf593b8c1e9929fc7bd0da8225ee6311bd99690f9056f8305391b42f8234a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,722
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,928
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,722 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 1c | 2,045$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd1…d384backed Yes | 2c | 654.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 148 | 6.8%10 W · 138 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 69c | 590.14$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.77 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 16c | 485.49$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.67 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc1…2496backed Yes | 30c | 269.11$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.58 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 261.96$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8b…4639backed Yes | 34c | 193.28$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 9c | 192.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc348…0b7ebacked Yes | 28c | 143.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.15 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -3.8wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4afa…b3ccbacked Yes | 28c | 141.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 28c | 114.05$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.41 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 24c | 105.61$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed No | 72c | 99.79$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.34 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5201…34c3backed Yes | 39c | 97.29$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.94 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff7…931dbacked No | 61c | 89.47$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.07 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 23c | 88.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 77c | 84.73$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 27c | 78.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8a…edf9backed No | 67c | 76.18$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.21 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -8.0wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 27c | 71.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 80c | 67.73$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…0cc2backed Yes | 39c | 65.74$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.77 | 229 | 45.4%104 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 38c | 60.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ede…9e87backed Yes | 32c | 60.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 71c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a41…2562backed Yes | 32c | 58.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 73c | 56.51$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…ec37backed Yes | 33c | 56.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 24c | 52.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb897…7007backed Yes | 30c | 50.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 24c | 49.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…f822backed Yes | 30c | 48.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 194 | 30.4%59 W · 135 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3487…11f5backed Yes | 31c | 48.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 96 | 53.1%51 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 71c | 46.04$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa8…fd4ebacked No | 68c | 45.68$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 67c | 45.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b05…d7a7backed Yes | 26c | 42.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc06…0db6backed Yes | 30c | 42.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…137ebacked No | 68c | 41.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 136 | 63.2%86 W · 50 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 25c | 40.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9f12…aa7cbacked Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 73c | 39.88$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd91…03cbbacked Yes | 31c | 39.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1a…1a27backed Yes | 38c | 37.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c78…4f7bbacked No | 78c | 36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaea…95a9backed Yes | 29c | 35.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 74c | 35.29$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fde…b0ffbacked Yes | 37c | 35.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 65c | 33.31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 74c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a7…eb82backed No | 78c | 27.82$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9743…d3a4backed No | 71c | 27.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b7…b30abacked No | 78c | 26.69$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 54 | 74.1%40 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 77c | 25.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc16…10fabacked No | 78c | 24.45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 71c | 24.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked No | 75c | 21.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe45…fd22backed No | 75c | 20.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No | 70c | 20.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63ac…3fc9backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 83 | 66.3%55 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5605…2112backed No | 71c | 19.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd68…988dbacked No | 72c | 19.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 68c | 19.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 78c | 15.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.51 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C on April 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C or higher on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C or below on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 7°C on April 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C on April 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.