TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

South American Leagues · resolved market

Spread: São Paulo FC (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Associação Chapecoense de Futebolof São Paulo FC, Associação Chapecoense de Futebol
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,093
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,095

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,093 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe23c…5ae7backed São Paulo FC24c2,000$480 inLost-$4805248.1%25 W · 27 L+6.0wins+0.11per pick37cpaid+10.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol76c1,949$1,480 inWon+$468.848,10748.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L+26.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed São Paulo FC21c1,088$225 inLost-$224.942,28134.3%782 W · 1,499 L-30.5wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-16.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol80c944$752 inWon+$191.922,51439%980 W · 1,534 L-32.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed São Paulo FC22c477.09$105 inLost-$104.963,74938.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L-33.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-8.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1f7…7656backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol78c477.09$372 inWon+$104.963262.5%20 W · 12 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick69cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed São Paulo FC23c292$67 inLost-$67.1638233%126 W · 256 L-11.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Associação Chapecoense de Futebol77c113.35$87 inWon+$26.073,40551.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L+21.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Associação Chapecoense de Futebol77c99.16$76 inWon+$22.8117951.4%92 W · 87 L-0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdcbb…07d9backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol77c81.83$63 inWon+$18.8214264.1%91 W · 51 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick65cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6db…3155backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol77c48.7$38 inWon+$11.223253%123 W · 109 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol79c23.01$18 inWon+$4.8363061.3%386 W · 244 L+22.3wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol77c23$18 inWon+$5.292,61154.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L+25.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Associação Chapecoense de Futebol77c17.39$13 inWon+$45,75745.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L+94.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24ce…da46backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol80c16.25$13 inWon+$3.2516449.4%81 W · 83 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-13.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e90…4f65backed Associação Chapecoense de Futebol78c15.97$12 inWon+$3.5116751.5%86 W · 81 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick53cpaid+4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.