South American Leagues · resolved market
Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. São Paulo FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20edaf514edee2e665e42e0f2b4a1cc84c83d969cf078877a61c3a02fd780cde
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,151
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,437
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,151 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 57c | 3,268$1,849 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,848.87 | 2,287 | 34.3%784 W · 1,503 L | -30.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb511…e800backed Under | 32c | 2,476$785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,690.93 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 42c | 1,246$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$722.72 | 2,519 | 39%982 W · 1,537 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…aa71backed Over | 69c | 999.92$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.94 | 213 | 66.7%142 W · 71 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 28c | 986.48$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$706.89 | 8,112 | 48.7%3,951 W · 4,161 L | +27.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8806…2e83backed Under | 75c | 984$738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.05 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b5…941abacked Over | 69c | 905.68$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624.92 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 57c | 360.85$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.93 | 5,762 | 45.4%2,614 W · 3,148 L | +94.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ab…0dc8backed Over | 70c | 300$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…a8e0backed Under | 52c | 293.47$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.93 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | +6.3wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…44e9backed Over | 70c | 284.67$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.27 | 182 | 47.8%87 W · 95 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 10c | 263.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.43 | 517 | 50.7%262 W · 255 L | +28.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 16c | 260$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 575 | 40.2%231 W · 344 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 48c | 195.85$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.79 | 1,447 | 45.9%664 W · 783 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…7f73backed Over | 60c | 149.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.99 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d40…ba95backed Over | 14c | 148.36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 42c | 108$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.76 | 852 | 20.7%176 W · 676 L | -85.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 31c | 105.07$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.5 | 1,303 | 50.1%653 W · 650 L | -14.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97b2…1c44backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5881…ca26backed Over | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7629…226cbacked Under | 25c | 80.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.06 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…5925backed Over | 70c | 77.23$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.06 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 17c | 76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Over | 41c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.41 | 350 | 46.3%162 W · 188 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 17c | 71.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 896 | 45.4%407 W · 489 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 40c | 60.48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.29 | 311 | 36.7%114 W · 197 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Over | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 485 | 47.6%231 W · 254 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 234 | 53%124 W · 110 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 494 | 40.9%202 W · 292 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Over | 28c | 43.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 506 | 43.9%222 W · 284 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Over | 33c | 40.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 519 | 45.7%237 W · 282 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 56c | 38.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 2,173 | 43.6%948 W · 1,225 L | -55.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 50c | 33.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 538 | 36.8%198 W · 340 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4359…1260backed Over | 61c | 29.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 69c | 27.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 673 | 37.1%250 W · 423 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Over | 67c | 26.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 79 | 73.4%58 W · 21 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc1…eebebacked Over | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39f9…fcc3backed Over | 65c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -4.5wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 1,296 | 43%557 W · 739 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…dd26backed Over | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…e91cbacked Over | 71c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 41 | 73.2%30 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. São Paulo FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. São Paulo FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. São Paulo FC: Associação Chapecoense de Futebol 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. São Paulo FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. São Paulo FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. São Paulo FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. São Paulo FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. São Paulo FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. São Paulo FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. São Paulo FC: São Paulo FC O/U 0.5Under won
- Spread: Associação Chapecoense de Futebol (-1.5)São Paulo FC won
- Spread: São Paulo FC (-1.5)Associação Chapecoense de Futebol won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.