South American Leagues · resolved market
Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. São Paulo FC: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x585701702957e4d18924982cfd4b7fb2458d7c986f5c7b1923ba4c3384470d65
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,934
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,956
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,934 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 40c | 3,207$1,281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,926.48 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb98…b473backed Yes | 64c | 2,500$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,599.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9dd…b525backed Yes | 55c | 999.98$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.99 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +5.6wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 57c | 446.75$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.49 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 45c | 341.21$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.7 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed No | 53c | 218.88$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.94 | 538 | 36.8%198 W · 340 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 50c | 125$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Yes | 50c | 104$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 491 | 36.3%178 W · 313 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7f…4c60backed Yes | 51c | 102.8$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.43 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 49c | 97.16$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.61 | 668 | 37.1%248 W · 420 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Yes | 44c | 92.19$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 350 | 46.3%162 W · 188 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Yes | 41c | 90$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.64 | 519 | 45.7%237 W · 282 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Yes | 45c | 87.68$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.57 | 485 | 47.6%231 W · 254 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Yes | 43c | 83.37$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.68 | 506 | 43.9%222 W · 284 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked No | 36c | 52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.28 | 720 | 58.8%423 W · 297 L | +29.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 57c | 42.57$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd74…bedabacked No | 34c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 129 | 33.3%43 W · 86 L | +7.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +20%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 49c | 38.82$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.67 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb305…a400backed Yes | 57c | 29.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -6.8wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. São Paulo FC: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. São Paulo FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. São Paulo FC: Associação Chapecoense de Futebol 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. São Paulo FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. São Paulo FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. São Paulo FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. São Paulo FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. São Paulo FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. São Paulo FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. São Paulo FC: São Paulo FC O/U 0.5Under won
- Spread: Associação Chapecoense de Futebol (-1.5)São Paulo FC won
- Spread: São Paulo FC (-1.5)Associação Chapecoense de Futebol won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.