Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will AFC Ajax vs. SBV Excelsior end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x89923f145653b688cc555d9021551c54fda5e34b08ad6072471b2cdee75b87b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,399
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,350
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,399 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 70c | 1,746$1,215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.99 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 76c | 1,513$1,154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.7 | 293 | 57.3%168 W · 125 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8245…4f87backed Yes | 34c | 1,163$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 78c | 715.33$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.52 | 834 | 40.8%340 W · 494 L | -35.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Yes | 22c | 500$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 52 | 17.3%9 W · 43 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8809…6e34backed Yes | 21c | 476.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 11c | 417.46$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.49 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 25c | 341.99$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.5 | 1,143 | 53.2%608 W · 535 L | +44.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 79c | 304.72$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.44 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d4…a077backed Yes | 16c | 291.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.72 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 22c | 254.55$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 853 | 40.1%342 W · 511 L | -12.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdb…62e0backed Yes | 35c | 228.57$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…68d2backed No | 68c | 194.32$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.86 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd45…4c8bbacked Yes | 25c | 160$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 30c | 125.91$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.15 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2085…dd27backed Yes | 35c | 125.71$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 71 | 42.3%30 W · 41 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc22c…bfc7backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa04c…7169backed Yes | 17c | 114.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe903…f8e1backed Yes | 35c | 108.6$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa18a…19cfbacked Yes | 22c | 74.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae9…9ccebacked Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 16c | 64.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 570 | 19.8%113 W · 457 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5422…6c3fbacked Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 125 | 52%65 W · 60 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc13f…ca64backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 869 | 60.4%525 W · 344 L | +91.3wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 1,098 | 50.5%554 W · 544 L | -36.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AFC Ajax vs. SBV Excelsior end in a draw?this page
- Will AFC Ajax win on 2025-11-22?No won
- Will SBV Excelsior win on 2025-11-22?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.